港口物流与进出口贸易关联发展分析——以北部湾港为例

Analysis of Related Development of Port Logistics and Import&Export Trade--A Case Study of Beibu Gulf Port

文章以北部湾港为研究对象,在分析北部湾港对外贸易和港口物流发展现状的基础上,选取北部湾港2013—2022年的数据,采用灰色关联度分析法和建立向量自回归(VAR)模型,对北部湾港港口物流和进出口贸易之间的关联发展进行实证研究。结果表明,从长期来看,北部湾港港口货物吞吐量与进出口贸易之间有着较为稳定且正向的相关关系,且港口货物吞吐量的增长对进出口贸易促进作用明显,而短期内港口集装箱吞吐量的增长对于进出口贸易的促进作用则不明显。

Taking Beibu Gulf Port as the research object,this paper aims to conduct empirical research on the related development between port logistics and import and export trade in Beibu Gulf Port by selecting the data of Beibu Gulf Port from 2013 to 2022,using the grey relational analysis and establishing vector autoregression(VAR)model,based on analyzing the development status of foreign trade and port logistics in Beibu Gulf Port.The results show that,over the long term,there is a relatively stable and positive correlation between cargo throughput and import and export trade of Beibu Gulf Port,and the growth of cargo throughput significantly promotes import and export trade,while the growth of container throughput does not have an obvious impact on promoting import and export trade in the short term.