陕西省旅游业与区域经济发展动态关系研究

Study on the Dynamic Relationship between Tourism Industry and RegionalEconomic Development in Shaanxi Province

本文通过建立VAR模型,使用ADF检验、协整检验、误差修正模型、脉冲响应函数、方差分解、格兰杰因果检验等计量方法,研究陕西省1991—2021年的经济增长和旅游业发展之间的动态关系,结论如下:陕西省经济增长和旅游业发展之间存在着长期均衡的协整关系;短期存在动态均衡关系且由于三个误差修正项系数均为负,符合反向修正机制;陕西省经济发展对旅游业冲击影响较大,旅游业对于经济的发展虽然也有影响,但是影响力不够;陕西省经济增长和旅游业之间存在着双向因果关系。因此,本文对陕西省提出如下建议:政府要合理规划旅游业布局,突出陕西旅游特色风格,丰富陕西历史文化内涵,完善陕西省旅游业基础设施,继续优化产业结构。

This paper studies the dynamic relationship between economic growth and tourism industry development in Shaanxi Province from 1991 to 2021 by establishing a VAR model,and employing various econometric methods such as ADF test,cointegration test,error correction model,impulse response function,variance decomposition and Granger causality test.The conclusions are as follows.There is a long-term equilibrium cointegration relationship between economic growth and tourism industry development in Shaanxi Province.There is a dynamic equilibrium relationship in the short term,and since the coefficients of three error correction terms are all negative,it conforms to the reverse correction mechanism.The economic development of Shaanxi Province has a significant impact on tourism industry.Although tourism industry also has an impact on the economic development,its influence is insufficient.There is a bidirectional causality between economic growth and tourism industry in Shaanxi Province.Therefore,this paper proposes the following recommendations for Shaanxi Province.The government should rationally plan the layout of tourism industry,highlight its unique characteristics and style,enrich its historical and cultural connotation,improve its tourism infrastructure,and continue to optimize its industrial structure.