基于MaxEnt模型的甘草潜在适生区预测

Prediction of Suitable Regions Suitable for Glycyrrhiza uralensis Based on MaxEnt Model

甘草(Glycyrrhiza uralensis)是一种具有较高经济价值的多年生豆科(Leguminosae)草本中药材植物。本研究基于MaxEnt模型与甘草野生分布数据,模拟了甘草当代的适生分布区,以及甘草未来(2050年、2070年)不同情景下在中国的适生区分布,包括中等社会脆弱性和中等辐射强迫的折中碳排放情景(SSP2-4.5)、高等社会脆弱性和高等辐射强迫的折中碳排放情景(SSP5-8.5),并利用ArcGIS软件分析未来甘草适生区的分布及变化情况,影响甘草潜在适生区变化的环境因子。结果显示:(1)当前,甘草适生区位于内蒙古中西部、甘肃、宁夏、陕西北部、新疆和吉林东北部,即降水量少的中高纬度地区;未来不同情景下(SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5),甘草高适应区主要集中分布于内蒙古、甘肃、宁夏、陕西、山西、河北、吉林、新疆等地,且适生区面积发生扩张。(2)在全球气候变化背景下,甘草适生区迁移路线整体呈现由东向西、由北往南偏移,且均有向低降水量地区移动的趋势。(3)最冷季度的平均降水量、年均降水量、紫外线季节性变化是影响甘草适生区变化的主导环境因子。

Glycyrrhiza uralensis is a perennial herbaceous plant of the Leguminosae family and a medicinal plant with high economic value.This study,based on the MaxEnt model and 70 wild distribution data of Glycyrrhiza uralensis,simulated the current suitable habitat distribution of Glycyrrhiza uralensis and its distribution in different scenarios in China in the future(2050,2070),including medium social vulnerability and moderate radiative forcing in 2050(SSP 2-4.5)and compromised carbon emission scenario for higher social vulnerability and higher radiative forcing in 2050(SSP 5-8.5).ArcGIS software was used to analyze the distribution and changes of suitable habitats for Glycyrrhiza uralensis in the future as well as the environmental factors affecting its potential suitable habitats.The results showed that:(1)currently,the suitable habitats for Glycyrrhiza uralensis are located in the central and western parts of Inner Mongolia,Gansu,Ningxia,northern Shaanxi,as well as the northeast of Xinjiang and Jilin,all of which are in the middle and high latitudes with low precipitation.Under different future scenarios(SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5),the highly suitable habitats are mainly concentrated in Inner Mongolia,Gansu,Ningxia,Shaanxi,Shanxi,Hebei,Jilin,Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region,and the area of suitable habitats has expanded.(2)In the context of global climate change,the migration route of suitable habitats for Glycyrrhiza uralensis generally shows a shift from east to west and from north to south,and there is a trend of moving towards areas with lower precipitation.(3)The average precipitation in the coldest quarter,annual average precipitation,and seasonal changes in ultraviolet radiation are the dominant environmental factors affecting the changes in suitable habitats for Glycyrrhiza uralensis.