患者需求变化下的药品供应链稳定性仿真研究

Simulation study on supply chain stability under drug market demand changes

本文基于原料药生产、药品生产及医疗机构采购3个药品供应链的主要节点,建立系统动力学模型,探讨不同患者需求条件下各节点供应情况的变化。实现对跃迁函数变化、周期函数变化以及随机函数变化的患者需求模型仿真,分析其对供应链稳定性产生的不同影响。建议供应链规划根据需求变化灵活调整策略,以确保药品供应的稳定性与患者需求的满足。

Based on the main nodes of the pharmaceutical supply chain,including raw material production,drug production,and healthcare institution procurement,a system dynamics model was established to investigate the variations in supply at each node under different patient demand conditions.Simulation of market demand models with transition function changes,periodic function changes,and stochastic function changes was conducted to analyze the different effects on the stability of the supply chain.It is recommended that supply chain planning should flexibly adjust strategies according to demand changes to ensure the stability of drug supply and meet patient demands.