美国制衡“一带一路”的地缘经济逻辑、路径及限度

The U.S.Counterbalance Against the Belt and Road Initiative:the Geoeconomic Logic,Approach,and Limits

当前,美国战略界已将制衡中国“一带一路”倡议纳入对华战略的总体布局。这一制衡呈现出全球性、系统性和长期性竞争的态势。在美国对华战略竞争日趋激烈的背景下,美国和西方战略界极易从地缘经济的视角审视和揣测“一带一路”倡议,认为它将在规则标准、国际发展和全球供应链等诸多领域对美国构成持续的现实挑战,具有重塑欧亚大陆地缘经济格局乃至全球新秩序的潜力。基于这一认知,美国将制衡“一带一路”倡议作为对华战略竞争的关键抓手,密切关注“一带一路”倡议的发展,以构建对“一带一路”倡议的负面认知为先导,以重塑“去风险”全球供应链为核心,用资本对冲“一带一路”倡议,在全球范围内围剿“一带一路”倡议。然而,美国制衡“一带一路”倡议也面临诸多国内外因素的掣肘。中国应保持战略定力,积极应对美国的制衡带来的风险。

At present,the U.S.strategic community is taking transnational,systematic and multidimensional policy measures to counterbalance against China's Belt and Road Initiative(BRI),regarding it as the core of U.S.-China strategic competition.As the U.S.views China as an increasingly competitive rivalry,the U.S.and Western strategic community tend to scrutinize and speculate on the BRI as a grant geoeconomic strategy,believing that it will pose a long-term challenge to the United States in the areas of rules and standards,international development,and the global supply chain,and that it implicates the attempt to reshape the geoeconomic structure of Eurasia and even the new world order.On the basis of these perceptions,the U.S.seeks to outcompete China through counterbalancing the BRI as a principal approach.As a result,the U.S.has drawn special attention to the development of the BRI and launched several geoeconomic methods.The U.S.initiates negative narratives on the BRI as the starting point,explores reshaping the global supply chain to make it“de-risk”,and provides alternatives to hedge against the BRI,exhausting all measures to counter the BRI worldwide.However,the U.S.is facing many domestic and international constraints,making it difficult to carry out all the plans.China should maintain strategic focus and explore means to effectively manage the potential risks.