内部贡献因素分解视角下南昌市粮食生产的年际波动特征与趋势分析

Interannual Fluctuation Characteristics and Trend Analysis of Grain Production in Nanchang from Perspective of Internal Contribution Factor Decomposition

为明晰稻谷生产趋势与种植结构现状,以南昌市粮食生产为研究对象,采用H-P滤波模型与RLI模型分析了南昌市粮食生产波动与内部结构贡献因素,探究了南昌市粮食生产结构的年际波动特征及其趋势。结果表明,南昌市粮食生产整体呈现缓慢上升趋势,具有明显的年际波动特征,波动呈现中幅型。从内部结构贡献因素分解角度来看,在短期内,粮食播种面积效应对南昌市粮食增产效果更为显著且稳定,生产力效应相对较弱,种植结构效应全为负值且不够明显;在长期内,生产力效应对南昌市粮食增产的贡献率要大于粮食播种面积效应与种植结构效应。同时,在粮食生产力效应与种植结构效应分解中,二晚对粮食增产贡献程度要显著优于早稻和一晚。

In order to clarify the trend of rice production and the current situation of planting structure,grain production of Nanchang was taken as the research object,and the H-P filtering model and RLI model were used to decompose and analyze the fluctuation and internal structural contribution factors of grain production in Nanchang.The interannual fluctuation characteristics and trend of grain production in Nanchang were explored.The results show that the grain production in Nanchang City has obvious characteristics of interannual fluctuation,showing a trend of slow rise on the whole,and the fluctuation range is medium.From the perspective of internal structural contribution factor decomposition,the grain sowing area effect on grain yield increase in Nanchang is more significant and stable.The effect of productivity is relatively weak,and the effects of planting structure are all negative and not obvious.In the long run,the contribution rate of productivity effect to the increase of grain yield in Nanchang is greater than that of grain sowing area effect and planting structure effect.Meanwhile,in the decomposition of productivity effect and planting structure effect,the contribution of two-season late rice to grain yield increase is significantly better than that of early rice and one-season late rice.The effect of one-season late rice on grain yield increase has a reverse effect in the cycle.