黄河流域农业水资源生态韧性与用水效率耦合协调及驱动因素研究

Study on Coupling Coordination and Driving Factors of Ecological Resilience and Water Use Efficiency of Agricultural Water Resources in the Yellow River Basin

韧性与效率是可持续发展的两个核心要素,统筹农业水资源生态韧性和用水效率协调发展,对于推动黄河流域生态治理和农业高质量发展具有重要现实意义。利用熵权-Topsis法、超效率SBM模型对黄河流域农业水资源生态韧性与用水效率进行测度,构建耦合协调度模型分析两者间的协调发展水平,借助核密度估计、ArcGIS图示法、Dagum基尼系数和空间自相关考察耦合协调度的时空演变格局及空间集聚效应,并运用地理探测器模型识别其驱动因素。结果表明:①时空演化上:2007-2021年全流域耦合协调度均值呈现先降后升的“U”形演化趋势,良好协调区呈现由点到片、由北至西南、由外围向内部蔓延的空间格局。②区域差异上:中游区域内差异扩大,上游和下游区域内差异缩小但两者区域间差异最大。③空间集聚上:偏向于随机分布且空间集聚较弱,未形成连片效应。④驱动因素上:自然灾害、研发投入与产业发展是协调发展度的主要影响因子。针对协调演化发展现状,提出“中心带动边缘”、“技术协同管理”、“政府结合市场”的一体化、系列化、多元化发展策略。

Resilience and efficiency are the two fundamental elements of sustainable development.Coordinating the development of ecological resilience and water use efficiency of agricultural water resources holds great practical significance for promoting ecological governance and high-quality agricultural development in the Yellow River Basin.The entropy weight-TOPSIS method and super-efficiency SBM model were used to measure the ecological toughness and water use efficiency of agricultural water resources in the Yellow River Basin.Additionally,the coupling coordination degree model was constructed to analyze the coordinated development level between these two factors.Using kernel density estimation,ArcGIS graph method,Dagum Gini coefficient and spatial autocorrelation,the spatio-temporal evolution pattern and spatial agglomeration effect of coupling coordination degree were investigated,and the driving factors were identified by geographic detector model.The results show that:①In terms of spatio-temporal evolution,the mean coupling coordination degree of the whole basin from 2007 to 2021 presents a U-shaped trend,and the good coordination area presents a spatial pattern spreading from point to film,from north to southwest,and from the periphery to the interior.②Regional differences:intra-regional differences in the middle reaches increased,intra-regional differences in the upstream and downstream narrowed,but the differences between the two regions were the largest.③Spatial agglomeration:It tends to random distribution and the spatial agglomeration is weak,and no contiguous effect is formed.④In terms of driving factors:natural disasters,R&D investment and industrial development are the main influencing factors of coordinated development degree.Considering the current situation of coordinated evolution and development,the integrated,serialized and diversified development strategies of"center driving edge","technology collaborative management"and"government combined with market"are put forward.