人工智能技术在未来改进天气预报中的作用

How artificial intelligence is transforming weather forecasting for the future

天气预报一直是一个复杂而充满挑战的领域.由于大气系统是高度非线性,即使极其微小的变化也可能对大气运动产生不可预知的扰动,这种大气中普遍存在的“蝴蝶效应”也正是天气预报的难点所在[1].长期以来,天气预报主要依赖于传统的数值天气预报模型.随着具有非线性学习能力的深度学习技术的崛起,气象领域开始应用人工智能模型.人工智能(artificial intelligence,AI)模型在短时预报、气象图像处理以及气候模拟等在内的多个气象领域的应用均有重要的突破[2,3].

Weather forecasting is a complex and challenging task.Numerical Weather Prediction(NWP),grounded in atmospheric dynamics,has long supported modern forecasting efforts.However,traditional NWP models often fall short due to the nonlinear nature of atmospheric systems.Enter Artificial Intelligence(AI):With its capacity for nonlinear learning,AI is transforming weather forecasting by introducing precise,data-driven approaches.Notably,Science named“The AI weather forecaster arrives”as one of the top ten scientific breakthroughs of 2023.It highlighted how meteorologists use advanced computing to model atmospheric futures,a practice that previously depended on vast computational resources to solve complex hydrodynamic equations.AI is revolutionizing this field by adeptly handling large datasets,learning autonomously,and generalizing across different scenarios,thus efficiently managing the complexities of atmospheric systems.Prominent tech companies like Google,Huawei,and NVIDIA have developed sophisticated AI models that now forecast weather with an accuracy that meets or surpasses that of traditional models,all while reducing computational demands.Despite these advancements,AI’s role in weather forecasting is not without its challenges.As noted by Science,AI models do not directly solve atmospheric equations but rather rely on decades of historical data,which can limit their effectiveness in predicting extreme weather events.These models often struggle with interpretability,data uncertainty,transferability,and the precise prediction of severe conditions.They cannot yet operate independently of numerical models.While AI can effectively predict stable conditions and moderate changes,capturing and forecasting sudden,severe weather events remains a challenge.In contrast,numerical models,with their solid mathematical and theoretical bases,are better suited to understanding the physical processes behind these abrupt changes,although they too have limitations in accuracy.Numerical models and AI models each contribute unique strengths to weather forecasting,and the future of this field lies in effectively integrating both approaches.By incorporating AI techniques,we can refine the semi-empirical parameterization used in numerical models,thus enhancing both the efficiency and accuracy of data assimilation processes.Additionally,AI can facilitate the development of integrated forecasting methods that leverage multiple models for more robust predictions.AI’s data-driven capabilities are particularly valuable in compensating for the limitations of numerical models,which may not effectively incorporate historical data.Introducing dynamic models can also enhance the interpretability of these forecasts.By combining the principles of atmospheric dynamics with AI methodologies,we can significantly improve both the accuracy and efficiency of weather predictions.This article explores Science review of the progress in AI-assisted weather forecasting,emphasizing the importance of further integrating dynamic systems and AI technologies.It identifies specific areas where these integrations can occur and outlines prospective advancements.Fueled by interdisciplinary collaboration and advancements in AI,future weather forecasting systems are poised to become more customized,provide real-time updates,and function autonomously.Such evolution will lead to significantly improved accuracy in predicting extreme weather and climate,enabling more precise weather forecasts.