技术集聚对资本回报率的影响研究——来自中国273个城市的经验证据

The Impact of Technology Agglomeration on the Return to Capital:Empirical Evidence from 273 Cities in China

加快技术集聚和提升资本回报率既是推动中国技术创新水平提升和进一步释放资本活力的重要抓手,也是推动中国经济高质量增长的重要支撑。基于2004—2018年中国273个城市数据,采用空间面板杜宾模型深入剖析技术集聚对城市资本回报率的作用机制与渠道。研究结果表明:一是技术集聚对资本回报率的影响效应呈倒U型关系,上述结论在基准检验、稳健性检验以及内生性检验均稳健成立。二是技术集聚对城市资本回报率的影响有着显著的空间溢出效应,且本地技术集聚对周边地区资本回报率也呈现出倒U型影响效应。三是产业结构高级化效应和创新效应是技术集聚对城市资本回报率作用的两个重要渠道,因而推动产业结构高级化和激发创新活力可以成为提高资本回报率和释放资本活力的重要工具。

Accelerating technology agglomeration and improving the return to capital are both important concepts to promote technological innovation and further release the vitality of capital in China,as well as acting as important supports for high-quality economic growth.This paper adopts a spatial panel Durbin model,based on the data of 273 cities in China from 2004—2018,to deeply analyze the mechanism and channels of the effect of technology agglomeration on the return to capital in cities.The findings show that a)the mechanism of the effect of technology agglomeration on the return to capital has an inverted U-shaped relationship that robustly holds through the benchmark,robustness,and endogeneity tests;b)the effect of technology agglomeration on the return to capital in cities has a significant spatial spillover effect,and the local technology agglomeration also shows an inverted U-shaped effect mechanism on the return to capital in neighboring areas;and c)the advanced industrial structure effect and the innovation effect are two important channels of the role of technological agglomeration on the rate of return of capital in cities.This indicates that promoting an advanced industrial structure and stimulating innovation can be important tools to improve the rate of return of capital and release its vitality in cities.