中国水资源开发与利用态势分析

Analysis of the Development and Utilization Trends of Water Resources in China

供水与用水规模及结构的演变与社会经济发展密切相关,准确把握水资源开发利用态势是水资源规划与管理的基础。本文基于2005—2022年全国供用水数据,采用构建的水资源开发态势Logistic方程及水资源利用态势Lotka-Volterra模型,评估全国水资源分区的供水模式及全国整体用水模式。针对全国地表水源供水量与地下水源供水量比例将突破6∶1的趋势,建议应避免地表水源的过度开发;针对现有一、二、三产用水比例距离理想的“3∶4∶3”尚存在较大距离的现状,仍需大力发展节水农业建设,以促进社会经济繁荣发展。

The evolution of water supply and demand scale and structure is closely linked to socioeconomic development,and an accurate understanding of the development and utilization trends of water resources is the foundation of water resource planning and management.Based on national water supply and demand data from 2005 to 2022,this paper employs constructed models,including the Logistic equation for water resource development trends and the Lotka-Volterra model for water resource utilization trends,to assess the water supply patterns in different regions of the country and the overall water utilization pattern nationwide.Given the trend of the surface water supply-to-groundwater supply ratio exceeding 6∶1,it is recommended to avoid excessive development of surface water sources.Additionally,considering the existing disparities in water use proportions among primary,secondary,and tertiary sectors,which deviate from the ideal“3∶4∶3”ratio,there is still a need to vigorously promote water-saving agricultural development to further stimulate socioeconomic growth and prosperity.