新安江模型在金城江水文站洪水预报中的应用

Application of the Xin’anjiang Model in Flood Forecasting at the Jinchengjiang Hydrological Station

本文依托中国洪水预报系统构建龙江金城江水文站洪水预报方案,基于遗传算法对新安江水文模型参数进行寻优率定,结果表明,该预报方案模型参数最优拟合效果好,方案确定性系数为0.877,分析的洪峰流量、峰现时间、洪量合格率均达乙级标准以上。利用该系统模型可在洪水作业预报中自动获取降雨及实时水文数据并进行快速分析计算,得出精准洪水预报结果,可助力龙江流域“四预”工作,为各级防汛部门提高“四情”精准防御工作提供数据支撑。

This paper relies on the rapid construction of flood forecasting schemes for the Longjiang and Jinchengjiang hydrological stations using the Chinese flood forecasting system.It utilizes genetic algorithms to optimize and calibrate parameters of the Xin’anjiang hydrological model.The results indicate that the optimized parameters of this forecasting scheme exhibit excellent fitting performance,with a deterministic coefficient of 0.877.Analysis of peak flow,peak arrival time,and flood volume qualification rate all exceed Class B standards.Utilizing this system model,rainfall and real-time hydrological data can be automatically acquired and rapidly analyzed to produce precise flood forecasts.This can aid in implementing the“Four Forecasts”measures in the Longjiang River Basin and provide data support for improving the“Four Conditions”precise defense work of flood control departments at all levels.