时空异质性视角下长江经济带水资源系统韧性评估及调控因子分析

Resilience assessment of water resources system and analysis of regulatory factors in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from the perspective of spatio-temporal heterogeneity

水资源系统韧性的评估与调控是缓解水资源危机和规避水资源风险的重要途径之一。从水资源的自然资源、社会经济、生态环境等属性出发,综合考虑水资源系统韧性的抵抗性、恢复性、适应性特征,构建了包含水资源、水经济、水福利、水管理、水生态和水环境6个维度的水资源系统韧性评价指标体系,建立了基于麻雀搜索算法的投影寻踪模型,运用自然断点法识别区域空间分异特征,采用因子探测识别影响水资源系统韧性空间分布格局的调控因子。通过对2010—2019年长江经济带11个省(市)水资源系统韧性的分析发现,在空间上,长江经济带水资源系统韧性表现为西部最优、东部次之、中部最末,且南部优于北部;在时间上,长江经济带水资源系统韧性虽有波动但整体呈现上升的趋势。从6个维度来看,水生态韧性维度的韧性值区间跨度较大,在0.08~0.52之间波动,水福利韧性最高,水环境韧性次之。水资源和水福利的相关因子对水资源系统韧性的影响较为明显,水经济中的工业废水治理投资占GDP的比重和万元工业增加值用水量2个指标以及水福利中的供水管道密度和人均供水量2个指标的影响力逐渐上升。通过对长江经济带水资源系统韧性和调控因子的分析,有针对性地提出了提高长江经济带水资源系统韧性的对策建议。

The assessment and regulation of water resources system resilience plays an important role in the alleviation of crises and risks related to water resources.Based on the attributes of natural resources,social economy,ecological environment of water resources,a water resources system resilience evaluation index system was constructed with the consideration of the resistance,recovery,and adaptability characteristics of water resources system resilience.This system includes six dimensions:water resources resilience,water economy resilience,water welfare resilience,water management resilience,water ecology resilience and water environment resilience.Then,a projection pursuit model based on the sparrow search algorithm was established,the natural breakpoint method was used to identify regional spatial differentiation characteristics and the geographical detector was adopted to explore the regulatory factors of the spatial distribution pattern of water resources system resilience.According to the analysis of the water resources system resilience in 11 provinces and cities of the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2010 to 2019,it was found that in terms of spatial distribution,the resilience of water resources in the Yangtze River Economic Belt was the highest in the western region,followed by the eastern region,but the lowest in the central region,and the south was generally better than the north.From temporal perspective,the resilience of the water resources system in the Yangtze River Economic Belt has fluctuated over the study period,but overall showed an upward trend.From the perspective of six dimensions,the range of the resilience value of the water ecology resilience was relatively large,fluctuating within the range of 0.08-0.52,water welfare resilience was the highest,followed by the water environment resilience.The factors of water resources and water welfare subsystem had a greater impact on the resilience of water resources system,and the proportion of industrial wastewater treatment investment in GDP and the water consumption per 10,000 yuan of industrial added value of water economy subsystem,as well as the impact of water supply pipeline density and per capita water supply of water welfare subsystem,were gradually increasing.Through the analysis of resilience and regulatory factors of the water resources system in the Yangtze River Economic Belt,targeted countermeasures and suggestions were proposed to improve the resilience of the water resources system in this area.