基于灰色关联分析的农业旱灾影响因素的研究

Research on Influencing Factors of Agricultural Drought Based on Grey Correlation Analysis

旱灾在我国发生的几率不断增加,利用多维面板数据的灰色关联识别模型对河西走廊的旱灾影响因素进行识别,找出影响程度最大的因素。利用多元序列关联识别模型计算可以得出:小麦播种面积的贡献率为75.1%、有效灌溉面积的贡献率为15.4%,两个要素的贡献率之和已经达到90%以上。由此可知,通过要素降维,用小麦播种面积和有效灌溉面积两个要素即表示对小麦产量影响程度大的农业生产要素。

The probability of drought in China is increasing.The influence factors of drought in Hexi Corridor are identified by using the grey correlation recognition model of multidimensional panel data,and the factors with the greatest influence are found.Calculations using the multivariate serial correlation identification model can be derived:The contribution rate of wheat sown area is 75.1%,and the contribution rate of effective irrigated area is 15.4%,and the sum of the two factors has reached more than 90%.It can be seen that through the factor dimension reduction,the two factors of wheat sown area and effective irrigated area are the agricultural production factors with the greatest influence on wheat yield.