地方政府债务风险对经济增长和财政稳定的影响——以山西省为例

The Impact of Local Government Debt Risk on Economic Growth and Fiscal Stability——A Case Study of Shanxi Province

随着我国财政体系和经济不断发展,在地方政府项目建设和市场投资需求的强烈驱动下,地方政府债务总额逐渐呈现上升趋势。然而,地方政府债务风险的不断积累,给我国经济增长和财政稳定带来了很大的不利影响。本文以山西省为例,研究了地方政府债务风险对经济增长和财政稳定的影响。实证结果表明,地方政府债务规模的扩大会抑制经济增长,增加财政风险;债务结构的优化和利率的合理控制对经济增长和财政稳定具有积极作用。基于这些发现,本文提出了一些建议,包括加强债务管理、优化债务结构、提高财政收入能力等,以应对地方政府债务风险,促进经济增长和财政稳定。

With the continuous development of China’s fiscal system and economy,driven by strong demand for local government project construction and market investment,the total amount of local government debt is gradually showing an upward trend.However,the continuous accumulation of local government debt risks has had a significant adverse impact on China’s economic growth and fiscal stability.This article takes Shanxi Province as an example to study the impact of local government debt risk on economic growth and fiscal stability.The empirical results indicate that the expansion of local government debt scale will suppress economic growth and increase fiscal risks;The optimization of debt structure and reasonable control of interest rates have a positive impact on economic growth and fiscal stability.Based on these findings,this article proposes some suggestions,including strengthening debt management,optimizing debt structure,improving fiscal revenue capacity,etc.,to cope with local government debt risks,promote economic growth and fiscal stability.