威胁认知、相互依赖与美国盟国对“一带一路”的政策差异

Threat Perceptions,Interdependence and US Allies’Policies toward the Belt and Road Initiative

随着世界政治极化的加剧,经济问题安全化与政治化趋势显著增强。“一带一路”倡议对恢复全球经济增长、扭转逆全球化趋势意义重大。“一带一路”倡议提出十余年来,国际社会积极响应,其中包括美国的部分盟国。然而,美国盟国对“一带一路”倡议的回应存在较大差异。结合“一带一路”的推进状况,美国盟国的政策选择大体分为积极响应、明显反对、谨慎中立和左右摇摆四种类型。为解释美国盟国对“一带一路”共建呈现的差异化回应,本文构建起一个以安全层面的威胁认知和经济层面的相互依赖为自变量的分析框架,并选取泰国、日本、澳大利亚和以色列作为案例检验对象。当前世界变乱交织,国际失序风险持续增加。美国不断强化“泛安全化”认知,鼓动盟国放弃“安全靠美国、经济靠中国”的二元平衡战略,逐步转向经济与安全都依赖美国,国际合作严重倒退。为确保“一带一路”倡议的深入推进,中国须平衡“一带一路”共建国家尤其是周边国家对中国的经济依赖和安全诉求,最大限度地增信释疑,增强中国崛起的认同度。

With the increasing political polarization in the world,there has been a striking convergence between political polarization and the securitization of economic issues.Although the Belt and Road Initiative(BRI),which is of great significance to global economic recovery and reversing the trend of anti-globalization,has gained traction with the international community,including some US allies,since its inception 10 years ago,there are huge differences in the responses by US allies to the BRI.Specifically,their policy choices can be roughly divided into four types:active embrace,cautious neutrality,vacillation,and obvious opposition.In order to explain the different responses of these US allies to the BRI,this article constructs an analytical framework identifying threat perceptions and economic interdependence as independent variables,and chooses Thailand,Japan,Australia and Israel as cases for testing.In a world fraught with changes and chaos,the risk of international disorder continues to rise.As the US doubles down on its pan-securitization and encourages its allies to abandon their twinpronged strategy of depending on the US for security and on China for economic development and to gradually shift to relying on the US for both,there is serious decline in international cooperation.In order to promote the BRI,China must carefully weigh the economic and security demands of BRI participating countries,especially neighboring countries,to maximize trust and dispel doubts,and earn support for China’s rise.