人工智能军事化与海洋安全:风险与应对

Artificial Intelligence Militarization and Maritime Security:Risks and Responses

人工智能作为当前科技变革中的战略性力量,具备“专用性与通用性”“能力—脆弱悖论”“成长性”“军民两用性”的特征,正从海上作战平台侦测信息的智能化分析、增强海战武器装备效能、推动智能化指挥决策系统建立、提高海上后勤保障可持续性等方面赋能海上作战体系,加速海上人工智能军事化进程。为维护国家海洋安全利益与增强海上军事优势,部分国家与联盟组织也相继出台军用人工智能战略文件或合作协议,各有侧重地将人工智能融入现有军事体系中。在此过程中,美国力求在军用人工智能领域全面发展以护持海上霸权,与盟友协同推进,并高度重视中俄等竞争对手海上的人工智能军事运用。人工智能军事化态势迅疾演进,或将强化全球海洋安全环境的不确定性与复杂性,表现为加剧新型海上军备竞赛风险、升级海上冲突风险、助长海上非传统安全风险、增加中国海洋维权风险。应对军用人工智能对海洋安全的挑战,必须推动海上军用人工智能运用治理,加强大国双边及多边的海上危机管控对话。于中国而言,针对当前最紧迫的海洋安全风险,应在海洋态势感知、军民融合、涉海虚假信息治理等方面提高应对海上人工智能军事化的技术与组织能力。

As a strategic force in the current scientific and technological competition,artificial intelligence(AI)is viewed as being“useful for both specific and general purposes”and subject to the“capability/vulnerability paradox”,and having“growth potential”and“dual-use”functions.It is empowering maritime combat systems and accelerating the militarization of maritime AI by facilitating intelligent analysis of information gathered by maritime combat platforms,enhancing the effectiveness of naval warfare weapons and equipment,promoting the development of intelligent command and control systems,and improving the sustainability of maritime logistics support.In order to safeguard maritime security interests and enhance maritime competitiveness,major powers and military alliances have issued strategy documents or cooperation agreements on AI’s military application,all focused on integrating AI into the existing military system.The US seeks to maintain its maritime hegemony through comprehensive development of military AI and close coordination with its allies,keenly alert to progress by competitors such as China and Russia.The rapid militarization of AI may increase the uncertainty and complexity of the global maritime security environment,with the increased risk of a new maritime arms race and maritime conflict,fueling non-traditional security risks at s0000a and increasing the risks associated with China’s maritime rights protection.To meet AI’s military challenge,it is necessary to promote AI governance in the maritime military sphere and strengthen the bilateral and multilateral maritime crisis management mechanisms among great powers.In view of the most urgent maritime security risks China faces at present,it should improve its technical and organizational capabilities in terms of maritime situational awareness,military-civilian integration,and responses to misinformation.