“再铸强权”:美国对华大容量电池产业的战略竞争

Aiming for Dominance:America’s Strategic Competition with China in the High-Capacity Battery Sector

在地缘政治日趋紧张的背景下,中国与美国在科技领域围绕产业主导权与重塑供应链展开激烈竞争。随着技术进步与应用拓展,大容量电池的战略属性日益提高,成为大国科技与产业竞争的主要“赛道”之一。其中,中国凭借较高的产业化水平在全球供应链中占据主导地位,而美国则由于原料缺乏、本土制造和消费市场发育不足,在诸多环节对华形成高度依赖。为了应对这一供应链风险,美国围绕“发展自身”和“制约对手”两个维度,内政外交双管齐下。一方面,重塑本土电池产业生态系统来弥补短板;另一方面,打造排华供应链网络、恶化中国的电池生产与投资市场环境,在提高自身韧性的同时消减中国大容量电池产业的潜在能力。美国的对华产业竞争策略将影响大容量电池产业链在全球的分布与运行效率,并可能在一定程度上阻滞中国相关产业的发展势头。虽然美国在大容量电池领域的产业竞争策略已经取得阶段性成果,但中国在该产业拥有较为明显的比较优势和先发优势,加上美国政府决策面临的内外阻力,美国在短期之内恐难以顺利实现对中国大容量电池产业的遏制与反超,该行业仍将是美国同中国进行科技产业竞争的短板。

In the context of growing geopolitical tensions,China and the US are locked in fierce competition over industrial leadership and supply chains in the high-tech sector.With technological progress and expanding applications,high-capacity batteries are gaining increasing strategic importance,making it one of the key battlegrounds in technological and industrial competition among major powers.In this sector,China holds a dominant position in the global supply chain thanks to its high level of industrialization.In contrast,the US faces supply risks due to its significant dependence on China,caused by a lack of raw materials and underdevelopment in its domestic manufacturing and consumer markets.To address these challenges,the US is adopting a dual approach that seeks to“strengthen itself”and“restrict its opponent.”It seeks to address its disadvantages by reshaping the domestic battery industry ecosystem and creating a supply chain network that excludes China to worsen the market environment in China for the production and investment in the battery sector.In this way it hopes to enhance its resilience and undermine China’s dominance in the high-capacity battery sector.US industrial competition policies towards China will affect the global distribution and the efficiency of the high-capacity battery supply chain and may,to some extent,slow Chin’s momentum.Although the US has achieved some initial success in its industrial competition policy,it is unlikely to effectively curb or surpass China’s industrial capabilities in the short term given China’s comparative and first-mover advantages in this industry,the various hurdles in decision-making in the US domestic decisionmaking processes.As a result,high-capacity batteries remain a weak spot for the US in its technological and industrial competition with China.