RCEP对我国居民食物消费的影响研究——基于动态GTAP模型

Research on the Impact of RCEP on Chinese Residents'Food Consumption Based on GTAP-Dyn

运用动态GTAP模型评估RCEP实施后第5年、第10年和第20年的经济效应,并使用AnalyseGE程序分解我国居民食物消费进口的变动效应,以探究RCEP对居民膳食消费升级的影响机制,结果表明:RCEP通过降低农产品贸易成本所引致的进口扩张能有效缓解我国重要农产品市场供给压力,居民对肉奶瓜果等食物的进口需求远高于口粮类产品,促进了我国居民食物消费升级;RCEP影响我国居民食物消费升级的主要路径是替代效应,而收入效应的作用相对较小;RCEP伙伴农产品的大量涌入,会对我国相关产业造成一定冲击。鉴于此,应深化多方位合作,强化供应链保障能力,增强RCEP农产品供给稳定性,充分发挥其对促进我国居民食物消费升级的替代效应;多措并举提升居民收入水平,补齐居民消费能力以推动膳食结构转型;重视RCEP伙伴农产品对国内肉类、奶类及糖类等弱竞争力产业的冲击,从顶层设计、技术创新等方面促进产业健康发展。

In this paper,the GTAP-Dyn is used to evaluate the economic effects in the 5th,1Oth and 2Oth years after the implementation of RCEP,and the change effect of residents'food consumption imports is deconstructed by the AnalyseGE program of GTAP,to explore the influence mechanism of RCEP on the upgrading of residents'food consumption.The results show that the RCEP can effectively alleviate the supply pressure of important agricultural products in China by import expansion of agricultural products through reducing the trade cost.The demand for meat,eggs,milk and fruits is much higher than that of grain products,which promotes the upgrading of food consumption of Chinese residents.The substitution effect is the main path affecting the upgrading of food consumption of Chinese residents,and the income effect is relatively small.The large influx of agricultural products from RCEP partners will have a certain impact on related industries.So it is neccessary to deepen multi-directional cooperation,strengthen the supply chain guarantee capacity,enhance the supply stability of RCEP agricultural products,give full play to its substitution effect on promoting the upgrading of food consumption of Chinese residents,take multiple measures to improve the income level of residents and complement the deficiency of the consumption capacity in promoting the transformation of dietary structure,expand the impact of imported agricultural products on domestic weak competitive industries such as meat,milk and sugar,and promote its healthy development from the top-level design and technological innovation.