存贷比对银行风险的影响及其机制分析——基于中国银行业的实证研究

The Impact of Deposit Loan Ratio on Bank Risk and Its Mechanism Analysis--Empirical Research Based on China's Banking Industry

完善存贷比监管政策对于防范银行风险、维护金融稳定具有重要意义。基于我国2010~2020年67家商业银行的面板数据,探究存贷比对银行风险的影响及作用机制。实证结果表明:存贷比的提高能有效地降低银行风险;存贷比降低银行风险存在资本充足率、同业资产以及影子银行业务的中介效应;当资本充足率为门槛变量时,存贷比降低银行风险呈“边际效应”递增的非线性影响;当同业资产、影子银行业务为门槛变量时,存贷比降低银行风险呈“边际效应”递减的非线性影响。鉴于此,监管机构应加强对存贷比作为流动性检测指标的监管,鼓励商业银行构建资本补充的长效机制,加强对同业资产以及影子银行业务的风险管控,从而提升金融监管效果,守住不发生金融风险的底线。

Improving the regulatory policy of deposit to loan ratio is of great significance for preventing bank risks and maintaining financial stability.This article is based on panel data from 67 commercial banks in China from 2010 to 2020,exploring the impact and mechanism of deposit loan ratio on bank risk.The empirical results indicate that the increase in deposit to loan ratio can effectively reduce bank risks,the loan to deposit ratio reduces bank risk through the intermediary effect of capital adequacy ratio,interbank assets,and shadow banking business.When the capital adequacy ratio is the threshold variable,the non-linear effect of the deposit to loan ratio on reducing bank risk is an increasing marginal effect.When interbank assets and shadow banking business are threshold variables,the deposit to loan ratio has a non-linear effect of diminishing marginal effects on reducing bank risk.In view of this,regulatory authorities should strengthen the supervision of the loan to deposit ratio as a liquidity testing indicator,encourage commercial banks to establish a long-term mechanism for capital replenishment,and strengthen risk control over interbank assets and shadow banking business,so as to enhance the effectiveness of financial regulation and maintain the bottom line of preventing financial risks.