京津冀地区有感地震评估模型研究及应用

Research and Application of Felt Earthquake Assessment Model in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

基于应急基础数据、损失评估模型和烈度衰减模型等,震后第一时间评估计算出影响范围和损失结果,将有助于政府和相关部门根据灾害规模部署救灾行动。目前,关于震后有感范围的快速确定尚无有效方法。本文基于京津冀地区2018—2022年30次震例的实际调查结果及仪器烈度分布,构建由有感半径(R)、震级(M)和震源深度(H)3个参数组成的有感地震评估模型,并从统计学角度分析该模型拟合的有效性。然后,将2023年北京地区发生的显著有感地震代入计算,与实际调查结果进行比对。最后,将模型在北京市本地化地震灾害快速评估与辅助决策系统中进行集成应用。实践应用表明,本文研究结果可以进一步提高京津冀地区地震应急服务响应能力。

Immediately following an earthquake,estimating the scope of impact and loss is crucial for facilitating government and relevant departments in deploying disaster relief operations.This can be achieved through basic emergency data,a loss assessment model,and an intensity attenuation model.This paper utilizes data from 30 earthquake surveys conducted in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region between 2018 and 2022,combined with instrument intensity distribution,to construct a felt earthquake evaluation model comprising three parameters:felt radius(R),magnitude(M),and focal depth(H).The effectiveness of the model is analyzed statistically.Additionally,representative felt earthquakes in Beijing during 2023 are calculated and compared with actual survey results.Finally,the model is integrated into the Beijing local earthquake disaster rapid assessment and auxiliary decision system.Practical application demonstrates that findings of this study can significantly enhance earthquake emergency response capabilities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.