城市气候条件对老年流动人口健康状况的影响研究

Study on the Impact of Urban Climate Conditions on the Health Status of the Elderly Migrant Population

气候对老年人口健康的影响虽然已经通过大量的文献得到证实,但对流动老年人口的健康关注还相对较少。文章使用2017年全国流动人口动态监测调查数据,构建Probit模型,重点分析气候变量——平均气温、日照时长和降水量对中国老年流动人口健康状况的影响,并加入个体因素、流迁因素、医疗卫生因素和社会经济因素等作为控制变量。样本统计结果显示,超过80%的老年流动人口自评为健康,但客观上看超过46%的老年流动人口有疾病风险,说明老年流动人口的健康状况值得关注。基准结果显示,气候对老年流动人口健康状况有显著影响,平均气温上升会提高老年流动人口健康的概率,用工具变量处理内生性后,这一结果依旧稳健。异质性结果显示,平均气温对低龄和中高龄老年流动人口的客观健康状况均有显著影响。平均气温上升和日照时长增加都会显著降低长期流动的老年人口的客观患病概率,而降水量增加则会显著降低长期流动的老年人口自评健康概率。气候对中西部老年流动人口的健康状况影响更为显著。

While the impact of climate on the health of the elderly population has been extensively docu-mented,less attention has been paid to the elderly migrant population.Using data from the 2017 national dy-namic monitoring survey of floating populations in China,this study constructs a Probit model to analyze the effects of climate variables(including average temperature,sunshine duration,and precipitation)on the health status of the elderly migrant population,controlling for individual,migration,healthcare,and socio-economic factors.The sample statistical results show that over 80%of the elderly migrant population rate their health as good,but objectively,over 46%of them are at risk of illness,indicating a significant health concern for this group.The baseline results indicate that climate significantly affects the health status of the elderly migrant pop-ulation,with higher average temperatures increasing their health probability.Instrumental variable analysis con-firms the robustness of these results after addressing endogeneity.Heterogeneous results show that the average temperature significantly affects the objective health status of both young and middle-aged and elderly migrant populations.An increase in average temperature and sunshine duration significantly reduces the objective proba-bility of illness among long-term migrant elderly populations,while an increase in precipitation significantly re-duces the self-rated health probability of long-term migrant elderly populations.The climate has a more signifi-cant impact on the health status of the elderly migrant population in the central and western regions of China.