考虑不同救援能力的应急救援人员派遣演化博弈

An evolutionary game of emergency rescuer dispatch considering different rescue capabilities

为解决突发事件初期救援人员的供需不平衡问题,提出构建突发事件应急救援人员派遣的演化博弈模型.综合考虑突发事件和次生灾害对救援网络道路的破坏,以及有限理性的受灾群众对救援人员派遣存在的竞争心理因素,从受灾群众视角,分析多个受灾点种群对救援人员派遣的博弈问题,利用复制者动态方程模拟各受灾点对救援人员派遣策略选择的动态演化过程,构建具有多个救援点和多个受灾点的多阶段救援人员派遣模型,并通过算例分析各受灾点救援人员派遣的动态演化过程和最佳方案.结果表明,利用综合考虑应急救援过程的多阶段动态特性和受灾点间的有限理性博弈心理模型,求解救援派遣方案是实用且可行的.参数敏感性分析结果给出了分别适用于3种不同救援场景的派遣方案.研究成果可为突发事件应急救援人员的派遣决策提供参考依据.

To address the issue of imbalance between the supply and demand of rescue personnel at the early stage of emergencies,we construct an evolutionary game model for dispatching emergency rescue personnel.The approach integrates considerations of road damage to rescue networks by emergencies and secondary disasters,as well as the competitive psychology of disaster-stricken populations with bounded rationality towards rescue personnel dispatch.From the perspective of disaster victims,we analyze the game dynamics of dispatching rescuers across multiple disaster sites.Utilizing replicator dynamic equations,we simulate the dynamic evolution of strategies for rescue personnel dispatch at each disaster site,thereby constructing a multi-stage model for dispatching rescue personnel across multiple rescue and disaster sites.Case studies illustrate the dynamic evolution and optimal dispatching schemes for each disaster site.Results demonstrate the practicality and feasibility of solving rescue dispatch plans by comprehensively considering the multi-stage dynamic characteristics of emergency rescue processes and the bounded rational game theory among affected points.Additionally,sensitivity analysis of parameters provides dispatch plans suitable for three different rescue scenarios. The research provides a reference basis for decision-making in emergency rescue personnel dispatch.