西北干旱区气候变化对灌溉春玉米生产的影响

Climate Change Impact on the Growth Period and Yield of Irrigation Spring Maize in Arid Region of Northwest China

基于河西走廊中部1984-2022年灌溉春玉米定位观测试验,结合同期气象资料,采用线性回归、相关分析和M-K突变检验等方法,分析气候变化对西北干旱区灌溉春玉米生育期和产量的影响。结果表明:春玉米全生育期平均气温以0.76℃·10a^(-1)的速率呈极显著上升趋势(P<0.01)。≥10℃活动积温呈显著增加趋势,平均每10a增加135.80℃·d。全生育期降水量增加趋势不显著,但乳熟-成熟期以4.50mm·10a^(-1)的速率显著增加(P<0.05)。1984-2004年日照时数以126.88h·10a^(-1)的速率显著增多,近19a以109.38h·10a^(-1)的速率显著减少。1984-2004年春玉米生长期长度以9.86d·10a^(-1)的速率显著延长,近19a以7.39d·10a^(-1)的速率显著缩短。播种-出苗期和七叶-拔节期长度与气温呈显著负相关;播种-出苗期、三叶-七叶期和吐丝-乳熟期长度与降水量呈显著正相关;各生育期长度均与日照时数呈显著正相关。研究期内春玉米产量呈波动变化,气候产量与全生育期内降水量呈显著负相关。综上所述,西北干旱区气候变化对当前灌溉方式下的春玉米生产不利。

To investigate the impact of climate change on the growth period and yield of irrigated spring maize in arid region of Northwest China,the study was conducted based on located observational experiment and climatic data from 1984 to 2022.The results showed that the temperature increased significantly during the entire growth period with a climate trend rate of 0.76℃·10y^(−1)(P<0.01),and a significant rise in active accumulated temperature above 10℃,with a climate trend rate of 135.80℃·d·10y^(−1)(P<0.01).Although there was no significant change in precipitation during the entire growth period,it increased significantly during the milky-maturity stage,with a climate trend rate of 4.50mm·10y^(−1)(P<0.05).The sunshine duration increased significantly from 1984 to 2004,with a climate trend rate of 126.88h·10y^(−1)(P<0.01),but decreased significantly in the last 19 years,with a climate trend rate of−109.38h·10y^(−1)(P<0.01).The growth days of spring maize increased from 1984 to 2004,with a climatic trend rate of 9.86d·10y^(−1)(P<0.01),but decreased significantly in the last 19 years,with a climatic trend rate of 7.39d·10y^(−1).The length of sowing-seedling and seventh leaf-jointing was significantly negatively correlated with temperature,respectively.The length of sowing-seeding,third leaf-seventh leaf and silking-milky was significantly positively correlated(P<0.05)with precipitation,respectively.The length of different growth periods was significantly positively correlated(P<0.01)with sunshine duration,respectively.The yield of spring maize fluctuated and climatic yield was significantly negatively correlated(P<0.05)with precipitation.In summary,climate change has been unfavorable to spring maize growth under current irrigation methods in arid region of northwest China.