基于LMDI-STIRPAT模型的黄河三角洲“碳达峰”预测

Carbon Peak Prediction in the Yellow River Delta Based on LMDI-STIRPAT Models

气候变化问题已成为人类可持续发展所面临的长期挑战,尽早实现“双碳”目标,对全球环境变化和促进各国经济的可持续发展都具有重要意义。以黄河三角洲的中心城市东营市为研究区域,通过LMDI模型对东营市的碳排放量影响因素进行了分解,采用STIRPAT模型对东营市的碳排放量进行了预测。研究结果表明:碳排放强度效应在影响东营市碳排放量的特征因子中是主要的抑制因素;经济发展效应和能源强度效应对东营市的碳排放量起促进作用,是主要的促进因素;情景预测结果显示,优化情景和低碳情景下东营市可以实现2030年前“碳达峰”目标,分别在2027年和2029年实现“碳达峰”,CO_(2)排放量为10638.63、10799.35万t。指出了优化能源结构,提高能源利用效率,实施绿色低碳转型高质量发展战略是黄河三角洲在2030年碳排放量达到峰值的重要保障。

With the increasingly severe form of global warming,climate change has become a long-term challenge for the sustainable development of mankind.Achieving carbon peak and carbon neutrality as soon as possible is of great significance to coping with global environmental changes and promoting the sustainable development of national economies.Under this pressure,the Chinese government has formulated corresponding policies at the provincial level in an effort to achieve the goal of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality.This paper takes Dongying City,the central city of the Yellow River Delta,as the research area.The influencing factors of carbon emissions in Dongying City were decomposed by the LMDI model,and the carbon emissions of Dongying City were predicted by the STIRPAT model.The results show that the carbon emission intensity effect is the main inhibitory factor among the characteristic factors affecting carbon emissions in Dongying City.The economic development effect and energy intensity effect have a promoting effect on the carbon emissions of Dongying City,which are the main promoting factors.The scenario prediction results show that under optimized and low-carbon scenarios,Dongying City can achieve the goal of peaking carbon emissions before 2030,with carbon emissions reaching 106.3863 million tons and 107.9935 million tons respectively in 2027 and 2029.Optimizing the energy structure,improving energy utilization efficiency,and implementing a high-quality development strategy for green and low-carbon transformation are important guarantees for the Yellow River Delta to reach its peak carbon emissions by 2030.