基于德尔菲法探索中国老年人群健康长寿实施策略

Exploring implementation strategies for healthy longevity among the elderly population in China based on the delphi method

目的基于德尔菲法探索中国老年人群健康长寿实施策略。方法通过文献检索和专家讨论,确定实现老年人健康长寿的实施策略框架,初步制定实施策略条目清单。采用德尔菲法确定老年人健康长寿实施策略,于2022年8月至12月邀请25名来自临床医学、公共卫生、基础研究、养老服务产业等领域的专家,通过邮件发放咨询问卷,要求专家对各条实施策略的重要性、可行性、判断依据和熟悉程度进行评价,分析专家积极程度、权威程度、专家意见集中程度和协调程度,最终确定适合中国老年人群重要且可行的健康长寿实施策略。结果两轮咨询的专家积极系数分别为96.00%(24/25)和79.17%(19/24),权威程度分别为(0.76±0.19)和(0.77±0.17)分;重要性评分分别为(4.32±0.84)和(4.36±0.82)分,可行性评分分别为(3.72±1.04)和(3.80±0.92)分;重要性评分Kendall′s W协调系数分别为0.269(χ^(2)=594.084,P<0.001)和0.159(χ^(2)=193.624,P<0.001),可行性评分Kendall′s W协调系数分别为0.205(χ^(2)=452.008,P<0.001)和0.167(χ^(2)=202.878,P<0.001)。两轮咨询结束后,最终确定8条实施策略。结论通过两轮德尔菲咨询,提出了8条适合我国国情的重要且可行的促进健康长寿的实施策略。

Objective To explore the implementation strategies for promoting healthy longevity among the elderly population in China based on the Delphi method.Methods Through literature review and expert discussion,a framework for implementation strategies to achieve healthy longevity among the elderly was determined,and a preliminary checklist of implementation strategies was developed.The Delphi method was employed from August to December 2022,inviting 25 experts from various disciplines such as clinical medicine,public health,basic research,and the elderly care services industry.Experts were sent consultation questionnaires via email to assess the importance,feasibility,judgment basis and familiarity of each implementation strategy.Active coefficient,authority coefficient,and harmony coefficient were analyzed to ultimately determine the important and feasible implementation strategies for healthy longevity that were suitable for the Chinese elderly population.Results The expert active coefficients of the two rounds were 96.00%(24/25)and 79.17%(19/24).The authority coefficients were(0.76±0.19)and(0.77±0.17).The average scores of importance were(4.32±0.84)and(4.36±0.82),and the corresponding scores of feasibility were(3.72±1.04)and(3.80±0.92).The harmony coefficients for the importance score were 0.269(χ^(2)=594.084,P<0.001)and 0.159(χ^(2)=193.624,P<0.001).The harmony coefficients for feasibility scores were 0.205(χ^(2)=452.008,P<0.001)and 0.167(χ^(2)=202.878,P<0.001).The final eight implementation strategies were identified after two rounds of consultation.Conclusion Through two rounds of Delphi consultations,eight important and feasible implementation strategies for promoting healthy longevity that are suitable for the Chinese context have been proposed.