解决全球经常账户失衡:指责中国抑或重视制造业?——基于人力资本结构高级化的视角

Solving Global Current Account Imbalance:Blame China or Focus on Manufacturing?An Advanced Human Capital Structure Perspective

解决人力资本结构高级化导致的经常账户失衡问题是国际经济高质量发展的关键。文章在构建经常账户—人力资本结构敏感度框架的基础上,以2007—2021年全球61个国家或地区14个制造业部门数据为研究样本,系统考察了国家制造业重视程度对人力资本结构高级化导致的经常账户失衡的影响。研究发现,国家重视制造业能够解决人力资本结构高级化导致的经常账户失衡问题;国家重视制造业可以提高制造业的全球竞争力和推动金融更好地服务实体经济,从而有效抑制人力资本结构高级化导致的经常账户失衡;对创新能力较强、制度质量较高、劳动力比较充裕和人力资本质量较高的国家以及劳动密集型和低技术水平行业而言,前述效果更加明显。可见,国家在重视制造业以解决人力资本结构高级化导致的经常账户失衡后,可以有效扩大就业规模和提升经济增长水平。

Solving current account imbalance caused by the advanced human capital structure is the key to the high-quality development of international economy.Based on the construction of the"current account-human capital structure"sensitivity framework,this paper takes data from 14 manufacturing sectors in 61 countries around the world from 2007 to 2021 as a research sample to systematically examine the impact of national emphasis on manufacturing on current account imbalance caused by the advanced human capital structure.The study finds that national emphasis on manufacturing can solve current account imbalance caused by the advanced human capital structure.The introduction of a manufacturing strategy at the national level significantly reduces"current account-human capital structure"sensitivity by 50.9%,this conclusion is still established after a comprehensive robustness test.Mechanism testing shows that national emphasis on manufacturing can improve the global competitiveness of manufacturing and promote finance to better serve the real economy,thereby effectively restraining current account imbalance caused by the advanced human capital structure.Heterogeneity analysis shows that the aforementioned effects are more obvious for countries with stronger innovation capabilities,higher institutional quality,more abundant labor force,and higher-quality human capital,as well as labor-intensive and low-tech industries.Economic consequences show that after the country attaches importance to manufacturing to solve current account imbalance caused by the advanced human capital structure,it can effectively expand the scale of employment and improve the level of economic growth.The conclusions show that the key to solving global current account imbalance lies in paying attention to manufacturing rather than blaming China.This is of great significance for deeply understanding the root cause of global current account imbalance and promoting the high-quality development of the real economy.