21世纪以来美国穆斯林群体政党倾向的变化及其影响

Changes in American MuslimsParty Affiliation Since the 21st Century and Their Impact

2023年新一轮巴以冲突以来,近年来总体上支持民主党的美国穆斯林群体再次呈现出政党倾向变化的迹象。在美国社会中长期面对“结构性”困境的穆斯林群体与民主党的链接并非天然,在不同议题上存在着差异性。具体而言,穆斯林群体在价值观和经济利益考虑上的共和党倾向、在追求民权方面的民主党倾向相对稳定。“9·11”事件后共和党政府的一系列政策对美国穆斯林群体造成了外部刺激和权利冲击,促使其进一步疏远共和党、转向民主党。而此轮巴以冲突以来,民主党政府对以色列的偏袒再次刺激了穆斯林群体,不能排除其未来疏远民主党的可能性。目前看,穆斯林群体在参与核心决策和制造舆论压力等方面对美国中东政策的影响有限,但其在某些关键州的选民分布却有可能牵动大选走向,并对拜登的竞选连任构成压力。由于人口规模增速较快、政治参与态势较为稳定且受到某些外部力量影响,穆斯林群体未来有望成为影响美国中东政策的重要国内因素,值得持续关注。

Since the onset of the latest Palestine-Israel conflicts in 2023,American Muslims,who have predominantly supported the Democratic Party in recent years,are showing signs of changing their party affiliation once again.The linkage between American Muslims and the Democratic Party is not inherent,given the“structural”challenges long faced by the Muslim community in America,while differences in their positions on various issues are almost inevitable.Generally speaking,American Muslims consistently align with the Republican Party on issues concerning values and economic benefits,while usually supporting the Democratic Party in their pursuit of civil rights.The Republicanspost-9/11 policies have brought external shocks and rights challenges for American Muslims,driving them further away from the Republican Party and closer towards the Democratic Party.However,the current Democratic administration's bias towards Israel in the ongoing Palestine-Israel conflicts has again agitated American Muslims,raising the possibility that they might drift away from the Democratic Party in the future.Presently,American Muslims exert limited influence on the decisionmaking process and public opinion concerning U.S.policy towards the Middle East.Nevertheless,their voter distribution in certain battleground states could potentially sway the outcome of the election,therefore exerting pressure on Biden's reelection campaign.Given their rapid population growth,consistent political engagement,and susceptibility to certain external factors,the American Muslim community is likely to become a significant domestic factor influencing U.S.Middle East policy in the future,therefore deserving continuous attention.