最优金融开放度探析:金融开放水平与经济增长速度之间的“倒U形”关系研究

Analysis on Optimal Financial Openness:Research on the Inverse U-shaped Relationship Between Financial Opening Level and Economic Growth Rate

在金融强国建设目标下,中国的金融开放战略将依然坚持“开放-稳定”的务实逻辑,其背后蕴含的理论逻辑亟待厘清。文章聚焦最优金融开放度是否存在,在理论层面依据金融发展框架构建一国在金融开放前后经济增长的二期动态模型发现,金融开放水平与经济增长速度的关系因一国储蓄率、金融发展水平以及国内劳动生产率与国际利率差距的影响而呈现“倒U形”关系。在实证层面聚焦于金融开放水平与经济增长速度之间“倒U形”关系形态的描述,首次将“充分必要条件下的‘倒U形’测度框架”应用于金融开放领域,论证了事实测度法和法定测度法下的金融开放水平与经济增长速度之间都存在稳健的“倒U形”关系形态。文章严谨论证了最优金融开放度的确存在,佐证了一国金融开放进程的可操控性,为中国“开放-稳定”的务实金融开放战略提供理论注脚。文章认为,两种测度法下的中国金融开放水平与经济增长速度的关系还处于“倒U形”曲线极值点的左侧区间,中国未来仍然具备保持稳定经济增长条件下的金融开放空间;法定测度法下的金融开放水平距离“倒U形”曲线的极值点更远,中国未来金融开放促进经济稳定增长时的发力点应重点放在法定金融开放度方面,并重点弥合法定测度法和事实测度法下的金融开放水平之缺口。

Under the goal of building a financial power,China's financial opening strategy will still adhere to the pragmatic logic of"openness-stability",and the theoretical logic behind it needs to be clarified.Focusing on the existence of optimal financial openness,this paper constructs a second-stage dynamic model of a country's economic growth before and after financial opening based on the financial development framework at the theoretical level and finds that the relationship between financial openness level and economic growth speed is inverted U-shaped due to the impact of a country's savings rate,financial development level,domestic labor productivity and the gap between international interest rates.At the empirical level,it focuses on the description of the inverted U-shaped relationship between the level of financial openness and the speed of economic growth.It applies the"inverted U-shaped measurement framework under sufficient and necessary conditions"to the field of financial openness for the first time,and rigorously proves that there is a robust inverse U-shaped relationship between the level of financial openness and the speed of economic growth under the factual measurement method and the legal measurement method.This paper rigorously proves that the optimal degree of financial openness does exist,proves the controllability of a country's financial opening process,and provides theoretical footnotes for China's pragmatic financial opening strategy of"openness and stability".The relationship between China's financial opening level and economic growth rate under the two measures is still on the left side of the interval of the extreme point of the inverted U-shaped curve,and China still has the space for financial opening under the condition of maintaining stable economic growth in the future.Moreover,because the level of financial opening under the current legal measure is further away from the extreme value of the inverted U-shaped curve,the focus of the future financial opening to promote stable economic growth should be on the legal financial opening degree,and focus on bridging the gap between the legal measure and the fact measure of financial opening level.