中国各地区国内外循环参与度测度及产品循环特征:基于总产出的增加值分解

Measurement of China's Provincial Domestic and International Dual Circulation and Products'Circulation Characteristics:Based on the Value-added Decomposition of Gross Output

文章着眼于新发展格局下中国区域层面分工深化与市场一体化,深入到中间产品与最终产品层面对总产出进行增加值分解,构建了区域内、区域间、国际循环参与度的测算框架,并使用2002年、2005年、2007年、2010年、2012年、2017年中国区域间投入产出数据进行测度,得到以下结论:(1)从循环模式看,区域内循环是地理位置偏远或自然资源丰富以及产业部门健全的湖北、湖南、四川、青海、云南、甘肃等中西部省市的主要循环方式。各地区参与区域内循环的行业主要是建筑业、服务业、农林牧渔业等。区域间循环是能源和矿产资源密集型行业集中的黑龙江、吉林、辽宁、河南、河北、内蒙古、陕西、重庆等省市的主要循环模式,2012年后是全国大部分省份的主要循环模式。(2)从发展阶段看,2002~2007年,国际循环快速增长并形成国际循环带动国内循环的分工格局;2007~2015年,国际循环减弱,国内循环尤其是区域间循环增强,形成东部省份主导的国内分工格局;2015~2017年,区域间循环减弱,东中西部省市均出现区域内循环反向替代区域间循环的现象,反映了国内市场的竞争加剧及东部发达省份产业结构升级的困境。(3)从分产品来看,区域内循环参与度以最终品为主,区域间和国际循环参与度以中间品为主;中间品国内循环的主要驱动因素是区域内分工深化的乘数效应(占61%),但动态上呈下降趋势,区域间分工的溢出效应逐步提高,反映了区域间生产分工的深化;在地理距离对区域间分工阻碍作用减弱的条件下,2002~2017年30省市双边溢出效应的集中度下降,说明制度性区域贸易壁垒成为国内循环的关键阻力。因此,需要统筹区域分工格局,并强化市场制度建设、降低区域间贸易成本、提高资源配置效率。

This article focuses on the deepening of production process division and market integration at China's provincial level under the new development pattern,considers both intermediate and final goods,applies value-added decomposition to gross output and puts forward a new calculation framework which can measure intra-regional,inter-regional,international circulation systematically.Using China's multi-regional input-output tables of 2002,2005,2007,2010,2012,2015 and 2017,we found results as follows.From the perspective of circulation pattern,intra-regional circulation is the main circulation mode in central and western provinces such as Hubei,Hunan,Sichuan,Qinghai,Yunnan,and Gansu,which are geographically remote or rich in natural resources and have complete industrial system.The industries participating mainly in the intra-regional circulation are relatively consistent among regions,such as construction,service,agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery.The inter-regional circulation is the main circulation mode for Heilongjiang,Jilin,Liaoning,Henan,Hebei,Inner Mongolia,Shaanxi,Chongqing,Hainan,which is geographically dispersed,and has been the main circulation mode in most provinces in China since 2012,reflecting the strengthening of regional market integration.From the perspective of development stages:from 2002 to 2007,the rapid growth of international circulation arouses intra-regional and inter-regional circulation,forming a regional production process division in which international circulation drives domestic circulation.From 2007 to 2015,the international circulation weakened,and the domestic circulation,especially the inter-regional circulation,strengthened,forming a domestic division of regional production which was dominated by the eastern provinces.From 2015 to 2017,the inter-regional circulation weakened,and the phenomenon that intra-regional circulation substitutes inter-regional circulation occurred among the eastern,central and western provinces,reflecting the intensified competition of domestic market and the dilemma of upgrading industrial structures in the eastern developed provinces.From the perspective of products'category:intra-regional circulation is dominated by final goods,while inter-regional and international circulation are dominated by intermediate goods.The main factor driving domestic circulation of intermediate goods is the multiplier effect,which reflects the deepening of intra-regional production division,accounts for 61%and declines recently.The spillover effect of inter-regional production division plays an important role in domestic circulation and enhanced on the contrary.With the barrier effect of geographical distance on inter-regional division of production process weakened,the concentration degree of the two-way spillover effect decreases,indicating that institutional regional trade barriers become the key resistance of domestic circulation.Therefore,it is necessary to coordinate the regional division of labor and strengthen the construction of market institutions to reduce inter-regional trade costs and improve the efficiency of resource allocation.