长江流域水-能源-粮食-森林系统耦合协调发展研究

Coupling and coordinated development of the water-energy-food-forest system in Yangtze River Basin

研究长江流域水-能源-粮食-森林(WEFF)系统耦合机理及协调发展时空演变,有助于实现长江流域高质量发展,以便更好地支撑和服务中国式现代化。本文在阐述WEFF系统耦合协调发展机理的基础上,运用综合评价指数模型、耦合协调度模型及全局空间自相关分析测度2003—2021年长江流域WEFF系统综合评价指数、耦合度及耦合协调度,并分析其时空特征,进一步利用灰色预测GM(1,1)模型预测了未来5年发展情况。本文主要结果如下:1)时序变化上,耦合阶段均处于磨合阶段,耦合协调类型从濒临失调转为勉强协调。2)空间差异上,除上海和青海外,各省(直辖市)耦合度均处于磨合阶段,耦合协调度大部分处于濒临失调、勉强协调和初级协调类型;多数年份耦合协调空间集聚状态明显,但空间分布格局缺乏稳定。3)发展模拟上看,基本延续了目前的耦合协调发展变化趋势,但各省(直辖市)发展情况各异。基于以上,统筹推进经济社会发展和生态环境保护、建立跨区域综合协商机制和健全跨部门沟通协商机制有助于保障流域资源安全、维护生态平衡、实现区域可持续发展,进一步推动长江流域高质量发展。

Water,energy,food,and forests are critical strategic resources necessary for sustainable development of the Yangtze River Basin(YRB).It is essential to examine the interconnected relationships among these four elements to achieve sustainable regional re-source management.This study investigated the coupling mechanism of the water-energy-food-forest(WEFF)system in the YRB,as well as its spatial and temporal evolution in coordinated development,which significantly contributes to the high-quality develop-ment of the YRB and promotes Chinese-style modernization.This study analyzed the coupling and coordination development mech-anisms in the WEFF system.Based on this,methods such as the comprehensive evaluation index model,coupling coordination de-gree model,and global spatial autocorrelation were employed to assess the comprehensive evaluation index,coupling degree,and coupling coordination degree of the WEFF system in the YRB from 2003 to 2021.Furthermore,the spatiotemporal characteristics were analyzed,and the grey prediction GM(1,1)model was used to forecast the development trajectory for the next five years.The primary findings were as follows.1)Regarding changes in the time series,the comprehensive evaluation index of the WEFF system in the YRB exhibited an unstable state,with an overall trend showing a gradual increase.The degree of coupling initially increased and then decreased,with all coupling stages occurring during the running-in stage.Similarly,the coordination degree of coupling showed an initial increase followed by a decline,and the type of coupling coordination changed from an imminent imbalance to barely coordinated.2)In terms of spatial differences,the comprehensive evaluation indices of the WEFF system and the four subsys-tems in each province(municipalities)within the YRB were moderate(<0.7).Analysis of the comprehensive evaluation index of the WEFF system revealed that Qinghai Province recorded the highest indices overall,and Jiangsu Province ranked the lowest in the en-tire system.Among the subsystems,the water,food,and forest subsystems of the Qinghai Province exhibited the highest indices,whereas the energy subsystem of the Sichuan Province had the highest indices.Conversely,the water,energy,food,and forest sub-systems of Shanghai Province were the lowest.The coupling degree of the WEFF system was not high;it was predominantly situated in the running-in stage with medium coordination,but with significant differences.Most provinces(municipalities)exhibited immin-ent imbalance,barely coordination or primarily coordination stages.Over most years,there was noticeable spatial clustering in coupled coordination,although the distribution pattern was unstable.3)Regarding development simulation,the coupling coordina-tion development status of the WEFF in the YRB from 2022 to 2026 closely resembled the developmental trend observed from 2003 to 2021,with variations among provinces(municipalities)within the basin.Therefore,this study proposed the following policy re-commendations to enhance coordination among systems with high-quality development in the YRB.1)Ensure that ecological protec-tion aligns with the advancement of economic and social development,promoting the ecological restoration of the Yangtze River to facilitate a comprehensive green transformation of economic and social development.2)Establish a cross-regional comprehensive ne-gotiation mechanism to rationally determine functional positioning and development directions,leverage the industrial location ad-vantages of diverse regions,and enhance coordination and cooperation of resources across regions.3)Enhance cross-departmental communication and negotiation mechanisms for coordination between policy and practice while actively guiding the efficient and rational allocation of water,energy,food,and forest resources.