县域视角下黄河流域农业绿色发展时空分异特征及驱动因素研究

Spatiotemporal differentiation characteristics and driving factors of agricultural green development in the Yellow River Basin from a county perspective

本文旨在探究县域视角下黄河流域农业绿色发展时空分异特征及驱动因素,以期使更多绿色资源和政策倾斜到黄河流域农业发展重点领域和薄弱环节,并科学有效地推进该地区农业绿色发展。基于核密度估计、标准差椭圆、空间马尔科夫链、空间自相关等计量方法实证分析了黄河流域农业绿色发展的时空分异特征、动态演进及其空间效应,并运用时空地理加权回归模型探究其驱动因素。研究发现:1)时间维度上,黄河流域农业绿色发展水平在2011—2020年整体呈现上升趋势。2)空间维度上,黄河流域农业绿色发展水平呈现出“西北低-东南高”的空间分布格局,并且各县域农业绿色发展水平具有显著的空间正相关性,存在空间溢出效应。3)在驱动因素方面,经济因素对黄河流域全域农业绿色发展有较强驱动作用,社会因素对黄河流域中游和上游农业绿色发展有较强驱动作用。本文得出如下启示:1)推进农业绿色系统转型工程,切实推进“减排”和“增效”协同发展。2)构建高效有序的农业绿色发展分布格局,统筹解决黄河流域农业绿色发展不平衡不充分问题。3)因地制宜,发挥经济、社会因素对农业绿色发展的资源要素优化配置作用。

The report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China put forward that“promoting green develop-ment,accelerating the green transformation of the development mode,and promoting the formation of green and low-carbon produc-tion and lifestyle are the essential requirements of Chinese path to modernization”.In the context of implementing the new develop-ment concept and actively promoting the“Dual Carbon”goals,the development of county-level agriculture was closely related to ecological security.Therefore,there is an urgent need to strengthen the attention paid to green agricultural development at county level and consolidate the foundation for achieving ecological civilization construction.Agricultural green development is an import-ant measure to modernize agriculture and rural areas and promote the high-quality development of agriculture.The Yellow River Basin has an extremely important strategic position as an important ecological barrier and core area for grain production in China.This study aimed to explore the spatiotemporal differentiation characteristics and driving factors of agricultural green development in the Yellow River Basin from a county perspective to provide more green resources and policies to focus on key areas and weak links of agricultural development in the Yellow River Basin and scientifically and effectively promote agricultural green development.This study used the game theory combination weighting method to construct an agricultural green development index.Based on economet-ric methods,such as kernel density estimation,standard deviation ellipse,spatial Markov chain,and spatial autocorrelation,we empir-ically analyzed the spatiotemporal differentiation characteristics,dynamic evolution,and spatial effects of agricultural green develop-ment in the Yellow River Basin.A spatiotemporal geographical weighted regression model was used to explore driving factors.The research found the following:1)In terms of the time dimension,the overall level of green agricultural development in the Yellow River Basin showed an upward trend from 2011 to 2020.The absolute difference in agricultural green development between counties gradually narrowed.From a watershed perspective,the level of agricultural green development showed a downstream>midstream>up-stream distribution trend.2)From a spatial perspective,the agricultural green development level in the Yellow River Basin presented a spatial distribution pattern of“low in the northwest and high in the southeast”,and the agricultural green development level in each county had a significant positive spatial correlation,with spatial spillover effects.3)In terms of driving factors,economic factors had a strong driving effect on the agricultural green development throughout the Yellow River Basin,while social factors had a strong driving effect on the agricultural green development in the middle and upper reaches of the Yellow River Basin.This study actively promotes the systematic engineering of agricultural green transformation,effectively promotes the coordinated development of“emis-sion reduction”and“efficiency enhancement”in the process of green agricultural production,establishes a coordinated mechanism for agricultural green development,constructs an efficient and orderly distribution pattern for green agricultural development,com-prehensively solves the problem of imbalanced and insufficient agricultural green development in the Yellow River Basin,adapts to local conditions,and leverages economic and social factors to optimize the allocation of resource elements for green agricultural de-velopment.