基于文本挖掘的WUI火灾致灾因子网络构建及特征分析

Construction and Feature Analysis of WUI Fire Causal Factor Network Based on Text Mining

为预防和减少WUI火灾的发生,挖掘WUI火灾关键致灾因子,厘清致灾因子间的作用机制.本文首先基于本文挖掘技术从WUI火灾事故案例中得到致灾因子,使用Apriori算法得到致灾因子之间的关联规则.然后使用复杂网络理论构建WUI火灾致灾因子网络,计算网络拓扑特征参数,探析WUI火灾致灾因子网络特征.最后引入WUI火灾致因链风险度指标,挖掘出高风险连边,并提出断链措施.结果表明:WUI火灾致灾因子网络具有小世界特性,高温、强风、干旱等对其他致灾因子影响较大.燃烧废弃物、植物起火、应急响应速度、人为纵火、强风在不同致灾因子转换中具有重要作用,应加强管控.网络中风险度最高的边是燃烧废弃物→植物起火,通过颁布禁止擅自燃烧废弃物等规定,即可切断该风险链,实现对WUI火灾的预防和主动控制.

To prevent and reduce the occurrence of WUI fires,this study mines the key causal factors of WUI fires and clarifies the action mechanism between the causal factors.First,this study obtains the causal factors from WUI fire accident cases based on the proposed mining technology and uses the Apriori algorithm to obtain association rules between the causal factors.Then it uses the complex network theory to construct the WUI fire causal factor network,calculate the topological parameters of the network,and analyze the characteristics of the WUI fire causal network.Finally,the study introduces the risk index of the WUI fire causal chain,mines the high-risk connecting edges,and proposes the chain breaking measures.The results show that the WUI fire causal factor network has a small-world characteristic,and high temperature,strong wind,and drought have a greater influence on other causal factors.Burning waste,plant fire,emergency response speed,human arson,and strong wind have important roles in the conversion of different causal factors,which should be controlled better.The most risky side of the network is burning waste → plant fire,and the risk chain can be cut off by enacting regulations such as the prohibition of unauthorized burning waste,to achieve the prevention and active control of WUI fires.