基于储罐爆炸损伤演化的化工园区社会风险分布研究

Research on the Social Risk Distribution of Chemical Industry Parks Based on Tank Explosion Damage Evolution

基于储罐爆炸损伤演化过程提出了化工园区社会风险分布确定方法。其基础为储罐爆炸损伤概率、储罐爆炸损伤概率分布、储罐爆炸损伤演化过程和区域损伤概率分布。研究了个人风险与社会风险的关系,基于储罐爆炸损伤演化过程和当地实际储罐爆炸概率确定了个人风险分布;加之考虑化工园区人员数量分布情况得到了社会风险分布。通过实例分析了某化工园区三个人员活动区域的社会风险,这些区域的风险存在着显著差别。最后论述了个人风险和社会风险分布的研究意义和作用。

A method for determining the social risk distribution of chemical industrial parks based on the tank ex⁃plosion damage evolution process is proposed.Its basis is the tank explosion damage probability,tank explosion damage probability distribution,tank explosion damage evolution process and the area damage probability distribution.The rela⁃tionship between individual risk and social risk is studied,and the individual risk distribution is determined based on the tank explosion damage evolution process and the actual probability of tank explosion in the local area.In addition,considering the personnel distribution in the chemical park,the social risk distribution is obtained.The social risks of three personnel activity areas in a certain chemical park are analyzed through examples,and there are significant differ⁃ences in the risks among these areas.Finally,the research significance and role of individual risk and social risk distri⁃bution are discussed.