江西省城市韧性时空演变特征及其影响因素分析

Spatial-temporal Evolution and Influencing Factors of Urban Resilience of Jiangxi Province

在全球环境变化、快速城市化以及大流行病频发的背景下,“韧性”一词提出为城市抵抗不确定风险提供新的发展方向。该文构建“经济-社会-基础设施-生态与组织制度”的韧性基线评价框架,结合层析分析—熵值法的组合赋权TOPSIS方法对江西省城市韧性进行测度。其次借助核密度估计、泰尔指数和重心—标准差椭圆探索江西省城市韧性的时空格局演进;最后通过地理探测器分析江西省各地级市城市韧性的影响因素。研究发现:①时间维度上,逐渐形成“前期低低聚集、后期高高靠拢”的演化势态。②空间维度上,空间分布不均衡,呈现“高值分散、低值聚集”的空间格局,这种差异主要根源于区域内差异。③影响因素来看,双因子作用对城市韧性水平影响显著,不同因子之间存在密切联系。

In the context of global environment changes,high-speed urbanization and the emergence of pandem⁃ics,term“resilience”has been proposed to provide a new development direction for cities to fight against uncertain risks.The baseline evaluation framework of resilience of“economic-social-infrastructure-ecology-organizational sys⁃tem”is constructed,and the TOPSIS method of chromatography analysis-entropy method to measure urban resilience in Jiangxi Province is combined.By using kernel density estimation,the index and the center of gravity-standard devi⁃ation ellipse,the evolution of spatial-temporal pattern of urban resilience of Jiangxi Province is explored.Finally,through the geographical detector,the influence factors of urban resilience of each prefecture level city in Jiangxi Prov⁃ince are analyzed.The results show that:①From the time dimension,an evolutionary state of low aggregation in the early stage and high convergence in the late stage is gradually formed.②In terms of spatial dimension,the spatial dis⁃tribution is unbalanced,showing a spatial pattern of high value dispersion and low value aggregation,which is mainly due to intra-regional differences.③From the perspective of influencing factors,the two-factor effect has a significant impact on the urban resilience level,and there is a close relationship between different factors.