我国基础货币投放机制的变迁、问题与建议——兼论央行购买国债的政策意图

The Changes,Problems and Suggestions of the Base Money Supply Mechanism in China—Also on the Policy Intention of the People’s Bank of China to Purchase Treasury Bond

近期,市场对于中国人民银行在二级市场买卖国债的讨论逐渐增多。中国人民银行购买国债的核心政策意图在于基础货币投放,而非量化宽松。自1984年中国人民银行专门履行中央银行职能以来,基础货币投放机制发生了重要变迁。文章对基础货币投放机制进行了全面梳理,并对各种投放渠道的优缺点进行了深入分析。当前,基础货币投放机制正面临新变革。一方面,外汇占款已停止增长,降准空间愈发有限;另一方面,传统货币政策工具和新型货币政策工具均存在不足。政策建议方面,一是未来应将购买国债作为基础货币投放的主要渠道,二是购买国债应坚持独立性和纪律性,三是合理使用各种基础货币投放渠道,四是增持黄金可作为基础货币投放渠道的补充。

Recently,market discussions on the People’s Bank of China’s purchase and sale of treasury bonds in the secondary market have gradually increased.The core policy intent of the People’s Bank of China’s purchases of treasury bonds is to base money supply,not quantitative easing.Since 1984,when the People’s Bank of China specialized in central bank functions,the mechanism of base money supply has undergone important changes.The article makes a comprehensive review of the base money supply mechanism and analyzes the advantages and disadvantages of various supply channels.At present,the base currency supply mechanism is about to change.On the one hand,the foreign exchange account has stopped growing,and the space for downgrading is more and more limited.On the other hand,there are deficiencies in both traditional and new monetary policy tools.In terms of policy recommendations,firstly,the purchase of treasury bonds should be used as the main channel for base money supply in the future;secondly,the purchase of treasury bonds should be independent and regulated;thirdly,various base money supply channels should be used rationally;and fourthly,the increase of gold holdings can be used as a supplement to the base money supply channels.