中国金融业与工业耦合协调发展的实证分析

An empirical analysis of Coupled and coordinated development of Finance and industry in China

金融业与工业之间的良性互动是经济大循环图景中的关键环节,二者协调发展对实现经济高质量发展至关重要。基于2006—2020年中国金融业与工业的相关数据,应用耦合评价模型和灰色关联度技术,测度金融业与工业的协同发展,并且进一步探究金融业和工业的耦合协调与经济增长之间是否有显著的正向关系。实证结果表明,全国范围金融业与工业的耦合处于高水平阶段;“金融—工业”系统的协调度在样本期间不断升高,由2006年的濒临失调发展到2020年的良好协调;金融业与工业的耦合协调对全国尤其是中部地区的经济增长有较为显著的促进作用。

Positive interaction between the financial sector and industry is a key link in the picture of the economic macrocycle,and the coordinated development of the two is crucial to achieving high-quality economic development.Based on the data related to the financial industry and industry in China from^(2)006 to 2020,the coupling evaluation model and the grey correlation technique are applied to measure the synergistic development of the financial industry and industry,and furthermore,to explore whether there is a significant positive relationship between the coupling and coordination of the financial industry and the industry and the economic growth.The empirical results show that the nationwide coupling of finance and industry is at a high level;the degree of coordination of the"finance-industry"system has been increasing during the sample period,from the near-disorder in 2006 to the good coordination in 2020;the coupling and coordination of the finance and industry have a more positive impact on economic growth,especially in the central region.