中国式现代化水平统计评价与时空收敛性分析

Statistical Evaluation and Spatiotemporal Convergence Analysis of Chinese-style Modernization Level

文章首先构建了中国式现代化指标体系,然后运用熵值法对2013—2021年中国式现代化水平进行测度,最后通过变异系数衡量中国式现代化的σ收敛性,并通过空间计量模型检验中国式现代化是否具有绝对β收敛和条件β收敛,从而进行中国式现代化时空收敛性分析。研究结果显示:在省域层面,各省份中国式现代化水平不断上升,北京、上海、广东、江苏、浙江、天津和福建7个省份的中国式现代化水平较高。在区域层面,东部地区的中国式现代化水平高于东北、中部和西部地区;南方地区的中国式现代化水平高于北方地区;粤港澳的中国式现代化水平高于长三角、京津冀、长江经济带和黄河流域。在分项指标层面,人口发展、共享富裕和绿色发展维度有优势,物质富裕、精神文明和开放包容维度是短板。在时空收敛方面,省域中国式现代化存在σ收敛、空间绝对β收敛和空间条件β收敛特征。

This paper first constructs an index system of Chinese-style modernization,then measures the level of Chinese-style modernization from 2013 to 2021 by using the entropy method,and finally measures theσconvergence of Chinese-style modernization through the coefficient of variation,using spatial econometric model to test whether Chinese-style modernization has absoluteβconvergence and conditionalβconvergence,with the spatiotemporal convergence of Chinese-style modernization analyzed.The research findings are as below:At the provincial level,the level of Chinese-style modernization in all provinces is rising,and the level of Chinese-style modernization in Beijing,Shanghai,Guangdong,Jiangsu,Zhejiang,Tianjin and Fujian Provinces is relatively high.At the regional level,the level of Chinese-style modernization in the east is higher than that in the northeast,middle and west;the level of Chinese-style modernization in the south is higher than that in the north;the level of Chinese path to modernization of Guangdong,Hong Kong and Macao is higher than that of the Yangtze River Delta,Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,the Yangtze River Economic Belt and the Yellow River Basin.At the sub-indicator level,the dimensions of population development,shared prosperity,and green development have advantages,while the dimensions of material prosperity,spiritual civilization and openness and inclusiveness are weak.In terms of spatiotemporal convergence,Chinese-style modernization of provinces has the characteristics ofσconvergence,spatial absoluteβconvergence and spatial conditionalβconvergence.