黄河流域碳排放的时空格局演变及驱动机制

Spatio-Temporal Pattern Evolution and Driving Mechanism of Carbon Emissions in the Yellow River Basin

黄河流域是我国资源能源富集区,也是碳排放较为集中的区域,实现碳减排任务十分艰巨。宁夏是黄河流域重要省区,随着经济社会的发展,碳排放呈现不断增加的趋势。影响宁夏各县域碳排放的原因复杂,其中,第二产业和能源消耗是造成碳排放的主要原因,人口规模、城镇居民可支配收入、人均GDP、建设用地、固定资产投资等因素对碳排放的影响系数有正值有负值,这些因素与碳排放之间可能存在类似环境库兹涅茨曲线关系,人口对碳排放逐渐表现出抑制作用。因此,宁夏应该升级产业结构,提高资源利用效率,优化人口空间分布格局,提高居民收入水平,加快清洁能源使用,促进经济与生态环境协调发展。

The Yellow River Basin is a resource and energy rich area in China,and also a region with relatively con-centrated carbon emissions.The task of achieving carbon reduction is extremely difficult.Ningxia is important in the Yel-low River Basin,and with the development of the economy and society,carbon emissions are showing a continuous in-creasing trend.The reasons that affect carbon emissions in various counties in Ningxia are complex,among which the sec-ondary industry and energy consumption are the main causes of carbon emissions.Factors such as population,disposable income of urban residents,per capita GDP,construction land and investment in fixed assets have positive and negative co-efficients on carbon emissions.There may be a similar environmental Kuznets curve(EKC)relationship between these factors and carbon emissions,and population gradually shows an inhibitory effect on carbon emissions.Therefore,Ningx-ia should upgrade its industrial structure,improve resource utilization efficiency,optimize the spatial distribution pattern of population,increase the income level of residents,accelerate the use of clean energy,and promote coordinated develop-ment of the economy and ecological environment.