黄河流域城市群生态韧性时空演化及提升路径研究

Research on Spatiotemporal Evolution and Improvement Paths of Ecological Resilience in Yellow River Basin Urban Agglomerations

推进黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展重大区域战略是“十四五”乃至更长时期内我国高质量发展的重要选择,厘清黄河流域生态韧性时空演化趋势以及提升路径,对深入推进战略纵深发展和走深走实具有重要意义。本文以黄河流域7个城市群49个城市为研究对象,基于“自然-经济-社会”复合生态系统概念,构建城市生态韧性评价体系;利用三维空间矢量模型测度黄河流域城市群城市生态韧性;借助GIS技术分析其时空演变特征,利用Moran′s I揭示黄河流域城市群城市生态韧性的空间关联程度,以及局部区域空间自相关特征;利用STIRPAT模型揭示城市生态韧性提升的影响因素并提出优化方案。结果表明:①2011−2020年黄河流域城市生态韧性呈现波动下降趋势,生态韧性值由0.224降至0.216。黄河流域城市生态韧性呈现集聚连片的特点,各城市群之间差异明显。高韧性等级的城市包括关中城市群的西安市、中原城市群的郑州市以及山东半岛城市群的济南市;较高韧性等级的城市包括山东半岛城市群的东营和淄博等市,呼包鄂榆城市群的呼和浩特和包头等市,宁夏沿黄城市群的银川和石嘴山等市,以及兰西城市群的兰州市;较低韧性等级的城市包括关中城市群的运城和临汾等市,以及晋中城市群的晋中、忻州和吕梁等市;低韧性等级的城市包括兰西城市群的海东和定西等市。②2011−2020年黄河流域城市生态韧性呈现空间正相关,Global Moran′s I值由0.217升至0.231,集聚程度略有增强。局部空间自相关分析表明城市生态韧性呈现“高-高”“低-低”“低-高”“高-低”4类空间稳定集聚区,且数量结构变化不大。③人均GDP、地区贸易开放度对黄河流域城市群城市生态韧性起正向促进作用,人口总数、非农人口比例、单位GDP能耗、科技投入比例、房地产投资完成额、地均财政收入对黄河流域城市群城市生态韧性起反向促进作用。研究显示,黄河流域城市群城市生态韧性值相对较低的城市分布在兰西城市群、晋中城市群、关中城市群的部分城市,上述城市未来应从合理引导人口流动、推进绿色贸易、开发低碳技术和促进城市均衡发展等提出优化方案,持续推进城市生态韧性建设。

Promoting the regional strategy of ecological protection and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin is an important choice for high-quality development in China during the‘14th five-year plan’period and beyond.Clarifying the spatiotemporal evolution trends and upgrading path of ecological resilience of the Yellow River Basin are of great significance for further strategic and practical development.Taking 49 cities in 7 city clusters in the Yellow River Basin as the research objects,based on the concept of‘naturaleconomical-social complex ecosystem’,an urban ecological resilience assessment system was constructed,and a 3D space vector model was used to measure the urban ecological resilience of the city clusters in the Yellow River Basin.GIS technology was used to analyze its spatiotemporal evolution features.Moran′s I was used to reveal the degree of spatial correlation of the urban ecological resilience in the Yellow River Basin city cluster in the entire study area,and spatial autocorrelation characteristics of local areas with cities as units.Then the STIRPAT model was used to reveal the influencing factors that affect the improvement of the urban ecological resilience and propose optimization plans.The results show that:(1)The urban ecological resilience in the Yellow River Basin shows a fluctuating downward trend from 2011 to 2020,and the toughness value decreased from 0.224 to 0.216.From the perspective of city cluster,the urban ecological resilience in the Yellow River Basin shows the characteristics of agglomeration and contiguity,and the differences among the city clusters are obvious.The cities with the highest resilience ratings include Xi´an in the Guanzhong City Cluster Group,Zhengzhou in the Central Plains City Group and Jinan in the Shandong Peninsula City Group.The cities with higher resilience ratings include Dongying and Zibo in the Shandong Peninsula City Group,Hohhot and Baotou in the Hubao and Eyu City Group,Yinchuan and Shizuishan in the Ningxia Riverside City Group,and Lanzhou in the Lanxi City Group.The cities with the lowest toughness rating include Yuncheng and Linfen in Guanzhong City Group,Jinzhong City Group,Xinzhou and Luliang in Jinzhong City Group;and the cities with lower toughness rating are Haidong and Dingxi in Lanxi City Group.(2)From 2011 to 2020,the urban ecological resilience in the Yellow River Basin showed a positive spatial correlation.The Global Moran′s I value increased from 0.217 to 0.231,and the degree of agglomeration increased slightly.The local spatial auto-correlation of four types of agglomerations is more spatially stable,and has little change in volume structure.(3)Per capita GDP and regional trade openness have positive contributions to the urban ecological resilience in the Yellow River Basin,while total population,proportion of non-agricultural population,energy consumption per unit GDP,proportion of scientific and technological investment,completion of real estate investment,and average local fiscal revenue have a negative effect on urban ecological resilience in the Yellow River Basin.The research shows that the cities with relatively low urban ecological resilience values in the Yellow River Basin are distributed in some cities of the Lanxi City Group,Jinzhong City Group and Guanzhong City Group.The above-mentioned cities need to put forward optimization plans for population,economy,technology and land,and continue to promote the construction of urban ecological resilience.In the future,urban ecological resilience should be promoted by rationally guiding population flow,promoting green trade,developing low-carbon technologies and promoting balanced urban development.