上海市水产品产量灰色关联与预测

Grey correlation and grey prediction of aquatic product output in Shanghai

为了解上海市水产品产量组成,预测未来的产量走势,利用2009—2022年上海市渔业统计数据进行了灰色关联分析,并构建了灰色预测模型,预测2025—2027年上海市水产品总产量以及淡水养殖、近海捕捞和远洋捕捞产量。分析结果显示:2009—2022年上海市水产品总产量为22.78万~33.05万t,平均值为28.10万t, 2014年以后总体呈现下降趋势,其中水产养殖产量为6.77万~16.25万t,平均值为12.82万t,捕捞产量为12.72万~19.67万t,平均值为15.29万t;2010—2013年养殖产量大于捕捞产量,2014—2022年养殖产量小于捕捞产量;水产品总产量与养殖产量的灰色关联度为0.615 5,与捕捞产量的灰色关联度为0.648 2,影响淡水养殖和捕捞产量的主要种类为鱼类和甲壳类。以2018—2022年上海市渔业统计数据构建的GM(1,1)模型的预测结果显示,未来几年上海市水产品总产量将会出现小幅下降,预测2025—2027年水产品总产量22.4万~23.6万t,其中淡水养殖产量12.8万~16.0万t,近海捕捞产量0.6万~0.7万t,远洋捕捞产量7.0万~9.0万t。

In order to understand the composition of aquatic product production in Shanghai and predict the future output trend,the gray correlation analysis was carried out based on the fishery statistics of Shanghai from 2009 to 2022,and the gray prediction model was constructed to predict the output of total aquatic products,freshwater aquaculture,offshore fishing and distant-water fishing in Shanghai from 2025 to 2027. The results showed that thetotal output of aquatic products in Shanghai from 2009 to 2022 was 227 800 to 330 500 tons,with an average of 281000 tons. After 2014,the overall trend has been declining. The aquaculture yields ranged from 67 700 to 162 500tons,with an average of 128 200 tons,while fishing yields ranged from 127 200 to 196 700 tons,with an average of152 900 tons. The aquaculture production from 2010 to 2013 was greater than the capture production,and theaquaculture production from 2014 to 2022 was less than the capture production. The grey correlation between totalaquatic product production and aquaculture production and capture production was 0. 615 5 and 0. 648 2,respectively. The main species affecting freshwater aquaculture and capture production were fish and crustaceans.The prediction results of the GM(1,1) model based on the fishery statistics of Shanghai from 2018 to 2022 showthat the total output of aquatic products in Shanghai will decrease slightly in the next few years. The total output ofaquatic products is predicted to be 224 000 - 236 000 tons from 2025 to 2027,among which the freshwateraquaculture output is 128 000-160 000 tons,the offshore fishing output is 6 000-7 000 tons,and the distant-waterfishing output is 70 000-90 000 tons.