摘要
梯级水库运行调度显著改变了下游洪水的时程分配,而现有洪水地区组成法没有考虑对工程设计和防洪调度最不利或最恶劣的情景。本文基于灾害风险理论,根据未控区间洪量及地区组成概率,提出一种最不利洪水地区组成法。雅砻江梯级水库实例分析表明:最不利地区组成法分配给下游未控区间流域的洪量总是大于同频率组成法和最可能组成法;最不利组成法推求的雅砻江出口断面1 000年一遇设计洪峰、3 d和7 d洪量分别为16 700 m^(3)/s、41.6亿和85.1亿m^(3),均大于其他洪水地区组成法估计值。理论推导和统计试验表明最不利地区组成法可合理分配洪量并兼顾下游防洪风险,具有深入研究和应用的价值。
The operation of cascade reservoirs has significantly altered the spatiotemporal features of downstream floods,while the current flood regional composition methods do not quantitatively consider the most unfavorable or worst situation for hydraulic structure design and flood control.In this paper,we proposed the most unfavorable regional composition(MURC)method that is based on the hazard risk theory and derived by flood volume from uncontrolled downstream sub-basin and corresponding allocation probability.The case study in the Yalong River cascade reservoirs indicates that:the flood volume allocated into uncontrolled sub-basin by MURC method is always greater than the equal frequency regional composition method and the most likely regional composition method;the design flood peak,3-day and 7-day flood volumes of the estuary section estimated by MURC method are 16700 m^(3)/s,4.16 billion,and 8.51 billion m^(3),respectively,which are all larger than the values estimated by other regional composition methods.Theoretical derivation and statistical experiment analysis further prove that the MURC method can rationally allocate flood volume and balance the downstream flood control risk,which is worth for further study and practical application.
作者
钟斯睿
郭生练
何彦锋
谢雨祚
王俊
ZHONG Sirui;GUO Shenglian;HE Yanfeng;XIE Yuzuo;WANG Jun(State Key Laboratory of Water Resources Engineering and Management,Wuhan University,Wuhan 430072,China)
出处
《水科学进展》
EI
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2024年第3期430-439,共10页
Advances in Water Science
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(U2340205)
国家重点研发计划资助项目(2022YFC3202801)。
关键词
设计洪水
梯级水库
洪水地区组成
洪量分配
雅砻江
design flood
cascade reservoirs
flood regional composition
flood volume allocation
Yalong River