基于STIRPAT模型的甘肃省碳排放影响因素研究

Analysis of the Influencing Factors of Carbon Emissions in Gansu Province Based on the STIRPAT Model

为探索“双碳”背景下甘肃省碳达峰实现路径,文章基于STIRPAT模型,立足甘肃省情选取六个影响因素,利用1997年-2020年数据构建了甘肃省碳排放岭回归模型,并以此对2020年-2035年3种政策情景下甘肃省的碳排放量进行预测。结果表明,GDP、碳排放强度和能源消耗强度是促进甘肃省碳排放增长的主要因素。在低碳和基准情景下,甘肃省碳排放将于2030年实现碳达峰,而后开始逐年下降。在高碳情景下,甘肃省碳排放量将逐年攀升,在2035年前碳达峰较为困难。最后提出提高经济发展质量,优化第三产业内部结构,推进传统能源绿色清洁高效发展是减少甘肃省碳排放的有效路径。

In order to explore the path of achieving the carbon peak in Gansu Province under the background of“double carbon”,this paper selects six influencing factors based on the STIRPAT model and uses the data from 1997 to 2020 to construct a carbon emission ridge regression model for Gansu Province,and use it to forecast the carbon emissions of Gansu Province under three policy scenarios from 2020 to 2035.The paper uses the data from 1997 to 2020 to construct a ridge regression model for carbon emissions in Gansu Province,and uses this to forecast the carbon emissions in Gansu Province under three policy scenarios in 2020-2035.The results show that GDP,carbon intensity and energy consumption intensity are the main factors contributing to the growth of carbon emissions in Gansu Province.Under the low-carbon and baseline scenarios,Gansu Province's carbon emissions will peak in 2030 and start to decline annually thereafter.Under the high carbon scenario,Gansu Province's carbon emissions will climb each year and it will be more difficult to reach the peak by 2035.Finally,it is proposed that improving the quality of economic development,optimising the internal structure of the tertiary sector and promoting the green,clean and efficient development of traditional energy sources are effective ways to reduce carbon emissions in Gansu Province.