电动自行车交通事故与建成环境的空间效应

Spatial effects of electric bicycle traffic accidents on the built environment

针对电动自行车交通事故分析中缺少对建成环境因素影响的考虑,对电动自行车交通事故与建成环境的空间交互影响进行研究。将某市划分为2 114个交通小区,采集该市2 640起电动自行车交通事故数据,选取人口统计学特征、道路属性、兴趣点(point of interest,POI)等10个建成环境解释变量进行分析。基于空间计量经济学理论构建空间滞后模型、空间误差模型和空间杜宾模型,通过比选确定最优模型来研究电动自行车事故与建成环境的交互关系。结果表明:空间杜宾模型在拟合度和解释力上优于其他模型;该模型揭示了电动自行车事故与建成环境因素之间的直接效应、间接效应及总体效应,明确了事故发生的空间规律,为电动自行车事故高发区域的识别及预防提供了科学依据。

This paper addresses the lack of systematic consideration of built environment factors in the analysis of electric bicycle traffic accidents,mainly conducting empirical research on the spatial interaction effects between electric bicycle traffic accidents and the built environment.The city was divided into 2114 traffic zones,with data collected on 2640 electric bicycle traffic accidents.Ten built environment explanatory variables,including demographic characteristics,road attributes,and points of interest(POI)etc.,were selected for analysis.Based on the theory of spatial econometrics,spatial lag models,spatial error models,and spatial Durbin models were constructed,and the optimal model was determined through comparison to study the interaction between electric bicycle accidents and the built environment.The results show that the spatial Durbin model is superior to other models in terms of fit and explanatory power.Through this model,the direct,indirect,and total effects between electric bicycle accidents and built environment factors are revealed,clarifying the spatial patterns of accident occurrence,and providing a scientific basis for the identification and prevention of high-incidence areas of electric bicycle accidents.