云南省旅游业高质量发展的时空演化及其影响因素的组态研究

Configurational Study of the Spatiotemporal Evolution and Influencing Factors of High-quality Development in Yunnan Province’s Tourism Industry

基于云南省16个州市2007—2021年面板数据,利用犹豫模糊层次TOPSIS法、空间核密度估计及动态QCA方法分析云南省旅游业高质量发展水平的时空演化及组态影响因素。结果表明:①2007—2021年,云南省旅游业高质量发展水平整体呈上升状态,各州市发展从不均衡逐渐向均衡态势演进。②云南省旅游业高质量发展呈“俱乐部趋同”态势,部分低水平州市存在屏蔽效应,中等水平相邻州市间正向溢出效应明显,高水平州市存在虹吸效应。③云南省旅游业高质量发展受5种组态因素影响,根据组态的结构提炼为国际开放型、环境消耗型、均衡推动型,昆明市及边境州市受国际开放型组态影响,其他州市多受均衡推动型组态影响。

Based on panel data from 16 prefectures and cities in Yunnan Province spanning from 2007 to 2021,a combination of hesitant fuzzy analytic hierarchy process,spatial kernel density estimation,and dynamic qualitative comparative analysis(QCA)methods is employed to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution and configurational impact factors of high-quality development in Yunnan Province’s tourism industry.The results are as follows:①During the period from 2007 to 2021,Yunnan Province’s tourism industry’s high-quality development level demonstrated an overall upward trend,with development across prefectures and cities transitioning from an uneven state towards a more balanced trajectory.②High-quality development in Yunnan Province’s tourism industry exhibits a trend of club convergence.Some lower-level prefectures and cities experience a shielding effect,while moderate-level areas demonstrate noticeable positive spillover effects among neighboring regions.Higher-level prefectures and cities,on the other hand,experience a suction effect.③Yunnan Province’s high-quality development of tourism is influenced by five configurational factors,which can be further refined into international openness,environmental consumption,and balanced promotion.Kunming City and border prefecture-level cities are influenced by the configuration of international openness,while other prefecture-level cities are mostly influenced by the configuration of balanced promotion.