基于CA-Markov和InVEST模型的昆明市土地利用与生境质量时空变化及预测

Temporal and Spatial Variation and Prediction of Land Use and Habitat Quality Based on CA-Markov and InVEST Models in Kunming City

基于2000年、2010年和2020年3期GlobeLand30土地利用数据,采用CA-Markov和InVEST模型,通过预测2030年土地利用以及生境变化特征,揭示昆明市土地利用变化趋势及对其生境质量时空演变的影响,为生态环境可持续性发展提供参考。结果表明:①研究区以耕地、林地和草地为主,2000—2020年由于退耕还林还草政策的实施和社会经济快速发展,耕地面积比例持续降低,人造地表面积比例增加,其他类型变化不大。②预计2030年人造地表扩张速度加快,主要是来自耕地、林地和草地的转换,除人造地表和草地外,其他用地类型面积均为下降趋势。③研究区于2010年景观破碎化程度达到最高,2020—2030年破碎化程度持续降低,各类型景观趋于简单化和规则化。④研究区平均生境质量逐渐降低,低生境质量区域与高生境质量区域面积逐渐增加,两极分化态势逐渐明显。

Based on GlobeLand30 land use data in 2000,2010 and 2020,this paper adopts CA-Markov and InVEST model to predict the characteristics of land use and habitat change in 2030,and reveals the trend of land use change in Kunming City and its influence on the temporal and spatial evolution of habitat quality.It provides reference for sustainable development of ecosystem in Kunming.The results show as follows:①The research area is mainly cultivated land,forest land and grassland.From 2000 to 2020,planned cessation of farming,afforestation,rapid economic development,the proportion of cultivated land area will continue to decrease and the proportion of artificial surface area increase during 2000—2020,while the other types have little change.②The expansion rate of artificial land surface is expected to accelerate in 2030,most of it comes from arable land,forests and grasslands,and the area of other land types except artificial land surface and grassland is in a downward trend.③Landscape fragmentation in the study area reached the highest level in 2010,and continu to decrease during 2020—2030,with all types of landscapes tending to be simplified and regular.④The average habitat quality in the study area decreased gradually,the areas of low habitat quality and high habitat quality increased gradually,and the trend of polarization was gradually obvious.