“一带一路”倡议下的行业出口质量升级

Export Quality Upgrade under"the Belt and Road Initiative"

本文基于BACI数据库HS6分位层面的贸易数据,测度了2010—2016年中国对214个国家和地区的行业出口质量,并利用双重差分模型识别了“一带一路”倡议对行业出口质量的影响。统计和实证结果都表明,“一带一路”倡议的实施可以显著提高行业出口质量,该结果通过了各项稳健性检验。在此基础上,进一步探讨了倡议影响出口质量的潜在作用路径,发现倡议通过促进“出口竞争效应”和“OFDI逆向溢出效应”,最终使得行业出口质量整体上得到提高。另外,异质性分析表明,倡议对“一路”国家、较不发达国家以及低技术、价格竞争行业、优先发展行业具有更明显的“提质”效应。结构分解发现,行业出口质量的提高主要是由产品内效应和低质量产品的退出实现的。在此基础上,本文引入离散时间的生存分析模型,发现“一带一路”倡议提高了产品退出出口市场的风险率,从而减少了其出口持续时间,验证了质量分解的结果;但同时可以通过提高产品质量来减少其退出市场的风险,有助于延长出口持续时间。综合来看,“一带一路”倡议发挥了“优胜劣汰”的作用。本文的研究为理解“一带一路”倡议在促进贸易平衡与可持续发展等方面的作用提供了新的视角与解释。

Based on the HS6 trade data of BACI database,this paper measures the export quality of China's industries to 214 countries and regions from 2010 to 2016,and uses the difference-in-difference model to identify the impact of"the Belt and Road Initiative"on the industry's export quality.Both statistics and empirical results show that the implementation of"the Belt and Road Initiative"can significantly improve the quality of industry exports,and the results have passed various robustness tests.On this basis,we further explored the potential mechanism of the initiative to affect the quality of exports,and found that the initiative promoted the export"competition effect"and OFDI"reverse spillover effect",which ultimately resulted in an overall upgrade of the industry's export quality.In addition,the analysis of heterogeneity shows that the initiative has a more significant"quality improvement effect"on"Maritime Silk Road"countries,less developed countries,and low-tech,price-competitive industries and priority industries.Structural decomposition reveals that the improvement of industry export quality is mainly achieved by the within effects of products and the withdrawal of low-quality products."The Belt and Road Initiative"has induced a"survival of the fittest"effect.Furthermore,this paper introduces a discrete-time survival analysis model and finds that"the Belt and Road Initiative"increases the risk rate of products withdrawing from the export market,thereby reducing the duration of exports,verifying the results of quality decomposition.Firms can improve export product quality to reduce the risk of its exit from the market,thereby extending the duration of exports.The research in this paper provides a new perspective and explanation for understanding the role of"the Belt and Road Initiative"in promoting trade balance and sustainable development.