碳达峰与数字经济发展“双赢”的政策配置研究

Research on Policy Configuration for"Win-Win"of Carbon Peak and Digital Economic Development

为了探究碳减排政策和数字产业政策及其配置的政策机制与“双赢”效果,本文根据中国经济实践构建数字经济-能源的动态可计算一般均衡模型,并按照两类政策的不同配置设计了15种政策情景,模拟评估了各种情景下政策组合的碳强度和数字经济规模的动态行为。研究发现:①实现减排目标的碳减排政策将优化能源需求结构,抑制高耗能产业产出,助推低耗能产业发展并优化能源需求结构,但是不可避免地会对中国宏观经济产生成本推动的负效应;②数字产业政策不仅显著促进了数字产业部门的产出增长,而且对传统产业的需求存在替代效应,推动了数字化转型的进程;③碳减排政策与数字产业政策的组合既促进了传统产业的“数字化”与“绿色低碳化”结构升级,也有利于碳减排与数字经济发展“双赢”;④碳减排政策和数字产业政策的适当配置才能规避“边际碳排放”问题和“经济抑制效应”,并助力产业结构转型升级。

In order to explore the policy mechanism and"win-win"effect of carbon emission reduction policies and digital industry policies and their allocation,this paper constructs a dynamic computable general equilibrium model of digital economy-energy based on China's economic practice,and designs 15 policy scenarios according to different configurations of the two types of policies.The simulation assesses the dynamic behavior of the carbon intensity of combined policies and the size of the digital economy under various scenarios.this paper constructs a dynamic computable general equilibrium model of the digital economy and energy to study the transmission mechanism of digital industry policies and carbon reduction policies and their combined effects.The paper simulates and evaluates the"win-win"effects of these two types of policies.The findings are as follows:(1)Carbon reduction policies aimed at achieving emission reduction targets will optimize the energy demand structure,suppress the output of high-energy-consuming industries,promote the development of low-energy-consuming industries,and optimize the energy demand structure.However,they will inevitably have negative effects on the cost-driven macroeconomic production in China;(2)Digital industry policies not only significantly promote the output growth of digital industry sectors but also have substitution effects on the demand for traditional industries,thereby driving the process of digital transformation;(3)The combination of carbon reduction policies and digital industry policies not only promotes the"digitization"and"green low-carbon"upgrading of traditional industries but also benefits both carbon reduction and the digital economy;(4)Appropriate combinations of carbon reduction policies and digital industry policies can avoid the issues of"marginal carbon emissions"and"economic inhibition effects"and facilitate the transformation and upgrading of industrial structures.