中国房地产市场的周期演进、理论逻辑与政策构想——与1991年日本房地产危机的比较分析

Periodic Evolution,Theoretical Logic and Policy Suggestions of China’s Real Estate Market:A Comparative Analysis of the Real Estate Crisis in Japan in 1991

从1998年中国房地产市场改革开始到2021年房地产市场出现拐点并进入下行周期,这24年间,中国房地产市场经历了一个完整的单边看涨周期。当前,在中国房地产市场下行的背景下,对过去24年的单边看涨周期进行研究,探寻中国房地产市场周期演进的规律,对中国房地产市场的健康发展和金融稳定具有非常重要的意义。本文基于修正后的D-W模型对1991年日本房地产危机产生的原因进行分析。通过将本轮中国房地产市场下行与1991年日本房地产危机进行比较分析发现,中国宏观经济层面不具备发生类似1991年日本房地产危机的条件。实证结果表明,对日本房价和房地产交易量增幅影响最明显的因素是利率、汇率、货币供应量和城市化率,短期内宏观政策急速调整,以及由此带来的利率和汇率大幅波动是1991年日本房地产危机产生的最根本原因。本文认为,本轮中国房地产市场下行的本质不是源自宏观经济层面,而是源自微观层面,即“三道红线”政策刺穿了中国房地产不健康的“三高模式”。本文为深入探析中国房地产市场进入下行周期的演进规律、厘清影响中国房地产业发展的核心因素、为政府部门和央行制定稳定房地产市场与内外部经济的相关政策提供了理论依据。

The Chinese real estate market experienced a continuous and unidirectional bullish cycle from its inception in 1998 until the turning point of decline in 2021.How to view the debt crisis of some leading real estate enterprises in China in the past years?Will China repeat the mistakes of Japan in the 1990s?This paper attempts to summarize and study the past 24 years,which is of great significance for the healthy development and financial stability of China’s real estate market.This paper follows an analytical logic from theoretical models to empirical tests.Firstly,based on the revised D-W model,a theoretical model for the equilibrium of the real estate market under open multi-industry competition is proposed,and the reasons for the real estate crisis in Japan in 1991 are reanalyzed with this model.Secondly,a multiple regression model is employed for empirical testing.The results show that the most important factors affecting Japan’s housing prices and transaction volume in the 1990s include interest rates,exchange rates,money supply,and urbanization rates,followed by GDP and real estate funds in place.Finally,by comparing China’s macroeconomic indicators from 1998 to 2021 with Japan’s indicators before and after the outbreak of the real estate crisis in 1991,we find that China does not have the conditions for a similar real estate crisis at the macroeconomic level.This paper contributes to existing literature in the following three aspects.Firstly,the D-W model has been revised three times by introducing housing prices,other industrial markets,exchange rates,and foreign investment markets in sequence,making the revised D-W model closer to the real world real estate market with financial attributes.Secondly,the study employs a moving average method to conduct simulated data regression analysis,revealing that the rapid adjustment of macroeconomic policies and its consequential significant fluctuations in interest rates and exchange rates are identified as the fundamental causes behind Japan’s real estate crisis in the 1990s.Thirdly,this paper points out that the essence of the current round of real estate downturn in China is that“three red lines”pierce the“three high mode”of Chinese real estate.This research reveals the fundamental reasons why China’s real estate market is entering a downward cycle from theoretical and macro point of view,which helps the real estate industry,the government,and consumers to correctly understand the operating laws of China’s real estate industry,and provides a theoretical basis for the central bank and the government to formulate relevant policies to stabilize the real estate market,the internal and external economy.