出口强度、产业链关联与产业升级——基于中国制造业资源依赖度异质性分析

Export Intensity,Industrial Chain Linkage and Industrial Upgrading——An Analysis of Heterogeneity Based on Resource Dependence of Chinese Manufacturing Industry

基于产业链关联视角,文章理论分析了出口强度对产业升级的影响机制,并利用2000—2014年中国制造业行业数据进行验证。研究表明出口强度增大会抑制产业升级,内生性检验结果稳健;机制分析验证了,总体上,出口强度增大会增加产业链国际关联、减少产业链国内关联,但主要通过增加产业链国际关联带来产业升级抑制效应。基于中国出口竞争优势多集中于高资源依赖度行业的现实,进一步异质性分析发现,高资源依赖度行业出口强度增大会增加产业链国际关联、减少产业链国内关联而抑制产业升级;低资源依赖度行业没有显著性影响。为此探索突破路径,发现资源配置效率提升能有效对冲出口强度增大对高资源依赖度行业升级的抑制效应。可见,面临日趋复杂的国际市场环境,中国在推进高水平对外开放以开拓国际市场和获取全球资源的同时,亟须着力于发展国内产业链和提升资源配置效率。该研究能为向“以内循环为主,外循环赋能”转变的新发展格局下的中国产业升级发展提供理论和实践支撑。

This paper theoretically elaborates on the impact mechanism of export intensity on industrial upgrading from the perspective of industrial chain linkage,and validates it using Chinese manufacturing industry level data from 2000 to 2014.The study found that the increase of export intensity will inhibit industrial upgrading,and the results of endogenous test are robust.Mechanism analysis shows that,on the whole,the increase of export intensity will increase the international linkage of the industrial chain,and reduce the domestic linkage of the industrial chain,but mainly by increasing the international link‐age of the industrial chain to inhibit industrial upgrading.Based on the fact that the competitive edge of Chinese export is mainly concentrated in industries with high resource dependence,further heterogeneity analysis shows that for industries with high resource dependence,the increase of export intensity will increase the international linkage of the industrial chain,while reducing the domestic linkage of the industrial chain,thereby inhibiting the industrial upgrading.Industries with low resource dependence have no significant effect.Exploring breakthrough paths for this purpose,analysis shows that the improvement of resource allocation efficiency can effectively hedge the inhibition effect of increasing export intensity on industrial upgrading.It can be seen that under increasingly complex international condition,while insisting on promoting high-standard opening up to explore international markets and access global resources,China urgently needs to focus on developing its domestic in‐dustrial chain and improving the efficiency of resource allocation.This study can provide theoretical and practical support for industrial upgrading and development under the new development pattern of"the internal circulation the main one,the exter‐nal circulation the enabler".