开放视域下京津冀城市群工业集聚与碳排放间关系研究——基于空间杜宾模型与中介效应的实证研究

Study on the relationship between industrial agglomeration and carbon emissions in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration from an open perspective——Empirical research based on spatial Durbin model and mediating effect

京津冀协同发展背景下,研究工业集聚对碳排放的影响可为制定区域减排政策和实现“双碳”目标提供参考。基于工业产出密度指数,采用京津冀地区13个城市2010—2021年的面板数据,并运用空间杜宾模型与中介效应模型实证检验了工业集聚与城市人均碳排放之间的非线性关系及其作用机制。研究发现:工业集聚与本地人均碳排放之间存在典型的正“U”形曲线关系,并与区域内经济水平相近的城市存在倒“U”形曲线关系;人均碳排放呈现高高集聚或低低集聚的空间分布特征,且具有负向空间溢出效应,城市间人均碳排放表现为替代关系;贸易开放可以成为工业集聚影响人均碳排放的中介变量,即工业集聚通过贸易开放的规模、技术、结构对人均碳排放产生曲线间接效应。

In the context of coordinated development in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration,studying the impact of industrial agglomeration on carbon emissions can provide references for formulating regional emission reduction policies and achieving the goal of“double carbon”.Based on the industrial output density index,this paper used the panel data of 13 cities in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration from 2010 to 2021,and empirically examined the nonlinear relationship and operating mechanism between industrial agglomeration and per capita carbon emissions by using the spatial Durbin model and the mediating effect model.The results showed that:There existed a typical positive U-shaped curve relationship between industrial agglomeration and local per capita carbon emissions,and a reverse U-shaped curve relationship with cities of similar economic levels in the region.Per capita carbon emissions between cities displayed spatial distribution characteristics of high-high agglomeration or low-low agglomeration,and exhibited a substitution relationship with negative spatial spillover effects.Trade openness could serve as an intermediate variable affecting per capita carbon emissions by industrial agglomeration,where industrial agglomeration indirectly impacted per capita carbon emissions through the scale,technology,and structure of trade openness.